Moody's expects India's GDP to shrink by 8.9% in 2020

Moody's Investors Service said on Thursday it expects India's economy to shrink by 8.9 per cent in the 2020 calendar year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, compared to an earlier forecast of a 9.6 per cent contraction.

The revision comes as a rise in novel coronavirus cases slows in the world's second-most populous country, and economic activity picks up after a 23.9 per cent contraction in April-June, when consumer spending, private investments and exports collapsed during one of the world's strictest lockdowns.

Also read: GDP to contract 8.6% in Q2; India has entered recession for first time: RBI official

"The steady decline in new and active (Covid-19) cases since September, if maintained, should enable further easing of restrictions. We, therefore, forecast a gradual improvement in economic activity over the coming quarters," Moody's said in a note.

In September, Moody's had forecast the economy to shrink by 9.6 per cent in the 2020 calendar year.

India is planning to announce a fresh round of stimulus totalling about $20 billion this week to help pull the economy out of its historic contraction, government officials told Reuters on Wednesday.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is currently addressing the nation.

Nirmala Sitharaman press conference live on DH

Separately, Goldman Sachs upgraded India to "overweight", citing a domestic macro recovery. It said Indian equities were most "positively sensitive to the improving prospects of a vaccine".