Extend Karnataka lockdown by two weeks, enforce graded unlock, says IISc expert

On a day when Covid figures in the state hit fresh highs, an expert from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) has predicted that the figures could breach the five-lakh mark by mid-May.

The state on Wednesday recorded 50,112 cases, crossing the half-lakh mark for the first time, even as the positivity rate touched a fresh high of 32%. Bengaluru alone accounted for 23,106 cases. Active cases touched 4,87,288 in the state and 3,13,314 in Bengaluru.

In a report released on Wednesday, Prof Sashikumaar Ganesan, chairman, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, IISc, argued for a graded unlock, saying, "No peak is observed in the no-lockdown scenario. However, a local peak before unlocking is observed in all lockdown scenarios (15-day and 30-day).

Read | Bengaluru: Covaxin doses exhausted, Covishield stocks running out

“However, the number of cases start to increase post lockdown. It indicates the need for a very strict graded unlock."

He told DH that the active cases in the state would shoot past five lakh in mid-May, touching 5,31,481 cases. “By the first week of June, a five-fold (80%) reduction in the number of new confirmed cases is observed in the 15-day lockdown scenario compared to the no-lockdown scenario. Longer lockdowns have higher reductions."

Prof Sashikumaar recommended an extension of the current lockdown for two more weeks and imposition of the unlock strategy similar to 2020.

His report suggests that the daily confirmed cases in a no-lockdown situation will shoot up to 1,85,348 on May 30. His estimation for Bengaluru in a no-lockdown situation would be 77,552 cases on May 30.

Read | It's BJP vs BJP in Karnataka amid second wave

"The current model only makes predictions till June 10. We haven't made predictions for cases beyond that date," he said.

However, epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu estimated Bengaluru to have more than 3.75 lakh active cases (for Karnataka 6,26,020) by mid-May, which is the period he expects the second wave to peak. "Making predictions on the peak has become increasingly difficult with low testing figures," he said.