Bihar blues to haunt Congress; Uttar Pradesh sees first fallout, more may follow

The Bihar blues are set to haunt the Congress after its poor performance in the recently concluded Assembly polls where it managed to win only 19 of the 70 assembly seats it contested. The abysmal show in Bihar has also deepened the impression of the disarray in the Congress and its inability to pull up its socks by losing not only its own strength but also pulling down the alliance.

The first shock came from Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in UP, which ruled out an alliance with the Congress in the 2022 Assembly polls, preferring 'smaller parties' instead.

The assertion of Akhilesh Yadav, who had contested the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls alongside the Congress, has some solid ground as the main Opposition party had performed equally bad then as well. Out of 105 seats it had contested, the Congress could win only seven seats despite a whirlwind campaign by Rahul Gandhi and the alliance having the backing of Prashant Kishor's election strategy. Kishor had designed the "UP ke Ladke" (UP's boys) tagline for the joint show of Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav.

Though it was the election in which the BJP decimated one and all, the SP won 47 of 298 seats it contested, and the BSP, which fought alone, won 19 seats. Akhilesh Yadav's father and SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav had then disapproved of Akhilesh conceding so many seats because of the Congress.

In terms of the 2022 UP assembly elections, the party will see a new UP in-charge in Priyanka Gandhi and an aggressive Congress may lead with bigger ambitions. This may have led to Akhilesh thinking it was pragmatic to have a tie-up with smaller parties with specific caste bases in limited regions.

The Bihar results have seriously undermined the Congress' capability of driving a hard bargain in the upcoming West Bengal Assembly polls in 2021 as well.

The chances of a Congress-Left tie-up had brightened when the CPI(M), after a two-day central committee meeting this month, announced that Left Front will have an electoral understanding in West Bengal with all the secular parties, including the Congress.

The confidence of the Left, with which the Congress is trying to have a tie-up for in West Bengal, is high after they won 16 of the 29 seats they contested in Bihar. The Left, which had ruled West Bengal uninterruptedly for 34 years till Mamata Banerjee ousted it in 2011, has its cadres on the ground-level across the state unlike the Congress, which has limited pockets of influence. With Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM planning to field candidates in Muslim-dominated regions of West Bengal, troubles for the Congress may rise further.

Even in the BJP-ruled Assam, the CPI(M) said it will contest the 2021 assembly polls in cooperation with secular Opposition parties, the Congress included.

The Congress and the DMK have been old allies in the Congress-led UPA and had contested the last Lok Sabha polls as part of the alliance. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance had won 38 of 39 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with the DMK getting near 33 per cent of votes and the Congress getting 13 per cent.

In the 2016 Assembly election, which was won by the AIADMK, the Opposition DMK had won 88 of the 180 seats contested, while the Congress had managed to win 8 out of the 42 it contested. Though this was 22 seats lesser than 63 seats the Congress had contested in 2011 state polls, chances are that the party may find it difficult to get even a repeat of 2016 in the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly polls. The Congress can, however, argue that other allies of the DMK had performed worse in that election.

Bihar's result will now give the dominant regional parties in states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu a chance to set the terms of the alliance.

Even in the Assam assembly polls in 2016, some parties had put the blame on the Congress for the "division of secular votes" and not letting a strong Opposition alliance emerge against the BJP. The Congress may have to walk a tightrope in the next set of Assembly polls.