Modi, vote-cutter AAP propel BJP to new poll summit

According to data, in as many as 34 seats, the AAP has emerged as runner up and impacted the Congress in 50% of those seats

The BJP scripted its record-breaking victory in the Gujarat Assembly polls on the back of its star attraction, Narendra Modi, and the debut of the Aam Aadmi Party, which spoiled the Congress's chances in at least 34 seats.

Picture this: In the Dang Assembly seat, the BJP candidate got 62,153 votes. The Congress was reduced to 42,436 while the new entrant, the AAP, bagged 20,278 votes for a combined total of 62,714 votes.

The difference of a little over 600 votes is also the winning margin of the BJP candidate. Even in 2017, when the Congress had defeated the BJP, the margin was narrow - about 700 votes.

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A similar story played out in north Gujarat's Bhiloda constituency.

The BJP candidate garnered 83,893 votes while the AAP and the Congress received 59,377 and 41,564 votes respectively.

The combined vote of the AAP and the Congress was over 1 lakh. This seat could also have gone to the Congress like in 2017, when it had defeated the BJP, whose number of votes increased only marginally - from 83,302 in 2017 to 83,893 in 2022.

In Vyara, Dhari, Dhoraji, Fatehpura, Tankara, Talala, Somnath, Sidhpur, Savarkundla, Rapar, Rajula, Wankaner, Jasdan and Garbara, Dangs and Viramgam, the AAP's presence helped the BJP.

Most of these seats are in Saurashtra, where the AAP won four seats. According to data, in as many as 34 seats, the AAP has emerged as runner up and impacted the Congress in 50 per cent of those seats.

For the first time in 60 years, the BJP snatched seats from Congress bastions like Vyara, Jhagadia in south Gujarat and Borsad, Mahudha, Garbada in central Gujarat.

"It seems that if AAP had not been in the picture, the Congress still would have been defeated but the BJP may not have crossed the historic number. Broadly speaking, the BJP's vote share has improved slightly from 49.1 per cent in 2017 to nearly 53 per cent this time," said a political observer.

"The AAP has clearly snatched about 12 per cent vote share from the Congress, whose share dropped to 27 per cent from 41.1 per cent in 2017 when it won 77 seats."

The political observer said the BJP owes its record-breaking victory due to the "AAP's entry, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's emotional connection with Gujaratis, Hindutva, government schemes as well as BJP's constantly evolving election formula".

Most of the political commentors agree that the last two days of Modi's campaigning could have helped the BJP win a few extra seats. Modi had invoked "Gujarat pride" and issues such as the surgical strike and "curfew-less Gujarat" during his whirlwind campaigning that saw him address nearly 35 rallies across the state.