Has BJP's Hindutva citadel cracked in Uttar Pradesh?

BJP has done well in UP mostly under an OBC leader, whether Kalyan Singh in the 1990s or a 'backward caste' Modi in 2014 and 2017

Within days of the Election Commission announcing the model code of conduct, prominent OBC (Other Backward Castes) leaders have exited the BJP, including Swami Prasad Maurya on Tuesday and Dara Singh Chauhan on Wednesday. In their respective resignation letters sent to the UP governor, the two ministers accused the Yogi Adityanath government of acting against the interests of Dalits and OBCs.

The BJP now finds itself between a rock and a hard place. There is a rethink against the plan to drop 100 sitting legislators from the party's list of candidates. Pressure is mounting to declare an OBC – preferably Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya – as its chief ministerial candidate.

But the BJP cannot afford to upset its loyal Hindutva base, which might happen if Adityanath, spoken of as Modi's successor among sections of the party's supporters, is replaced. It's been barely 70-days since Union Home Minister Amit Shah, considered the architect of the BJP's wins in 2014 and 2017 in UP, asked UP's electorate to elect Adityanath again if they want Narendra Modi as the prime minister in 2024.

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But here is the BJP's Catch-22. Since 1991, when it first formed the government in India's most populous state, the BJP secured its better electoral performances under an OBC leader. Conversely, its Hindutva consolidation collapsed when upper-caste leaders helmed its government or the party in UP.

The caste of a monk

According to the Hindu tradition, sants are considered beyond the caste hierarchy, and jaat na puccho sadhu ki (do not ask a sadhu his caste) is a well-known tenet. However, ironically enough, Adityanath, the head priest of the Gorakhnath temple, a shrine famous among OBC castes, ran a government for the last five years that came to be closely associated with his Thakur caste. It unsettled not just Dalits and OBCs but also UP's influential Brahmins.

In the 1990s, the BJP in UP turned to Kalyan Singh, an OBC leader, to answer the socialist politics of Mandal or backward class assertion. The Janata Dal, its offshoot Samajwadi Party, but also Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), spoke of the electoral battle as one between 85 per cent have-nots, comprising Dalits, OBCs and Muslims versus 15 per cent haves, primarily the upper-castes.

However, as the leaden-footed Congress, led by upper-caste leaders, failed to react to the new reality and sank in UP, the BJP's Mandal and Hindutva mix spectacularly improved its performances in subsequent Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. The BJP bagged 221 seats in 1991, 177 in 1993 and 174 in 1996 Assembly elections in UP. Its Lok Sabha returns from UP were equally handsome, reaching a high of 57-seats in 1998.

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When the BJP tally dropped from 57 to 29 seats in the 1999 post-Kargil Lok Sabha elections, it replaced Kalyan Singh with Ram Prakash Gupta. A year later, Rajnath Singh succeeded Gupta. Rajnath Singh and Gupta were upper-caste leaders. In the 2002 UP Assembly polls, the BJP tally dropped below 100 in the 403-member Assembly for the first time in a decade. Worse was to follow.

In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP couldn't maintain its 29-seats. It could win a meagre 10 of UP's 80 Lok Sabha seats - a disaster that cost the BJP its government at the Centre. UP result was why Congress pipped the BJP as the single largest party by seven seats and formed the government. The BJP, led by upper-caste leaders in UP, performed embarrassingly in the Assembly and Lok Sabha polls in 2007 and 2009, respectively. In the 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP dropped to 47-seats.

Its star shone again in UP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It won 71 of the 80-seats, with ally Apna Dal winning two more. Significantly, the BJP went into the elections with Modi speaking of himself as a "pichhada" or an OBC. The Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 split the Jat and Muslim coalition in western UP, and Shah reached out to non-Jatav and non-Yadav leaders across the state, like Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal.

In the run-up to the 2017 Assembly polls, the BJP again reached out to several non-Jatav and non-Yadav leaders among Dalits and OBCs, respectively. Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan, Om Prakash Rajbhar and others joined or allied with the BJP. It won a massive 312 of the 403-seats, with its allies winning another 13-seats.

Also Read | Mass desertions 'force' BJP to revisit its electoral strategy in Uttar Pradesh

Imports from rival political parties won nearly 100 of BJP's seats, primarily non-Jatav Dalit leaders and non-Yadav OBC leaders. But the BJP interpreted it as a vote primarily for Hindutva, as it handed Adityanath the reins of the government, with Keshav Prasad Maurya, its OBC face, made the deputy CM, to strike a balance.

But not just Keshav Prasad Maurya and other OBC leaders, Brahmin and Dalit legislators complained against Adityanath and his close group of advisers running the government. Nearly 200 BJP legislators protested against the chief minister inside the UP legislative assembly in December 2019.

'80 vs 20'

Last week, Adityanath said the forthcoming UP polls were between the state's 80 per cent people versus the 20 per cent who oppose Ram Janmabhoomi, Kashi Vishwanath, the development of Mathura and Vrindavan. "The 20 per cent are those who sympathise with mafias and terrorists," he said, leaving few in doubt that he believed UP's 80 per cent Hindus would stand with the BJP against the state's 20 per cent Muslims.

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But the exit from the BJP of OBC leaders, speculation is Dalit leaders might too, threatens to unsettle Adityanath's equation.

The BJP has fought several elections since 2014 by consolidating minor castes against politically dominant ones. In Haryana, the BJP rallied all others against Jats; in UP against Jatavs, Yadavs and Muslims; in Bihar against Yadavs and Muslims and Maharashtra against Marathas.

Could it be that Adityanath has created a situation in UP where OBCs, Muslims, sections of Dalits and even Brahmins might come together against the BJP and Adityanath?

Under Modi and Shah, the BJP since 2014 has scripted unprecedented electoral wins. It could, on this occasion, too, in the 2022 UP Assembly polls by becoming the first incumbent government in two decades to return to power. But it is faced against history.

With a month to go for the first phase of polling, watching the BJP's damage control manoeuvres hereon would be interesting.