Four reasons why Bihar may not be a cakewalk for NDA

PM Modi’s influence may remain strong in this region of the cowbelt, but Nitish Kumar's reputation has suffered greatly, both in terms of his charisma and governance, due to his numerous somersaults over the past few years.

Patna: In Bihar, or even elsewhere, electoral math is more important than poll chemistry. This is precisely why Amit Shah, despite having declared that “all doors for Nitish have been closed forever”, took a U-turn and re-admitted Nitish Kumar into the NDA fold. 

Despite Modi’s magic and all the hype over the Ram temple, the BJP’s internal survey in January reportedly said that emotive issues won’t help the saffron camp sail through in Bihar as the JD(U), RJD, Congress, and the three Left parties combined had become numerically stronger to give the NDA a run for its money. 

Notably, the NDA won 39 seats out of 40 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bihar during the 2019 parliamentary elections after bagging 53% votes. 

However, much water has flown down the Ganga since 2019. Modi’s magic may not have been diluted in this part of the cowbelt, but his partner Nitish’s image has taken a huge beating both in terms of his charisma and governance due to his numerous somersaults in the past few years. Such is the antipathy towards the JD(U) leader throughout the state (for his flip-flops) that he remains no more a crowd-puller or a leader who could fetch votes and even transfer them to his alliance partners.

Secondly, in 2024, there is no Ram Vilas Paswan factor. His hold over six to 7% of the Dalits was unquestionable.

But with Paswan no more, his son Chirag is no patch on Ram Vilas. Nor is Chirag’s uncle (Ram Vilas’s younger brother) Pashupati Kumar Paras, a Union minister in the Modi government.

Thirdly, the addition of CPI-ML, CPM, and the CPI in the Mahagatbandhan has given a shot in the Left arm of the RJD-Congress combine. It again boils down to the electoral math, as the Left was not part of any alliance in Bihar in 2019.

These three parties combined polled around 10% votes, which would add muscle to the RJD-Congress combined strength of 31% (as per 2019 statistics).

Fourth is the enhanced image of Tejashwi Yadav in the past one-and-a-half years as the deputy CM for the second time, from August 2022 to January 2024.

Tejashwi, single-handedly, helped RJD emerge as the single largest party during the November 2020 Assembly polls by promising lakhs of jobs to the unemployed in Bihar. When he took over as DyCM, he delivered his promise (by giving appointments) in just 17 months, thereby making the youths crazy about him. Today Tejashwi is touring Bihar with his “17 months vs 17 years of Nitish rule” slogan.

(The writer is a Patna-based journalist.)