ABP-CVoter survey predicts Narendra Modi's return for third term in 2024, NDA vote share to go up

With just few days left for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections, there has been a flurry of pre-poll surveys predicting different electoral results.

A new pre-poll survey conducted by ABP News-CVoter has projected a big victory for BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The saffron camp is predicted to win 373 seats out of the total 543 with a vote share of 46.6 per cent.

The survey results shows that NDA will see an increase in its vote share to 46.6 per cent from 45.1 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The I.N.D.I.A. bloc is expected to win 155 seats, gathering a vote share of 39.8 per cent. In 2019, these parties, not contesting as a bloc, had together garnered 36.6% of the total votes.

The ABP-CVoter survey, which seeks to reflect the mood of the public before the Lok Sabha elections, has made a few predictions — estimating big wins for NDA in Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Uttar Pradesh.

The NDA is predicted to retain its hold in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Gujarat. In Karnataka too, the NDA is projected to win 23 out of the 28 seats.

For its prediction in Bihar, the survey estimated that NDA is likely sweep the state with 33 seats, leaving only 7 for the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

Maharashtra has a relatively more split electorate, with the survey predicting 18 seats for I.N.D.I.A and 30 seats for NDA.

Only in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala do voters seem to be more inclined to vote for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc parties while Telangana, like Maharastra, will also yield a divided vote.

(The survey findings are based on CVoter opinion poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults voters statewide. The survey was conducted between March 11 to April 12, 2024. A total of 57,566 respondents spread across 543 Lok Sabha seats were interviewed for the survey.)