Assembly Elections 2024| Haryana, J&K results diminish Congress clout; gives handle to allies ahead of Maharashtra, Jharkhand polls

New Delhi: The 2024 Lok Sabha results sprung the Congress back to confidence after a decade of electoral reverses, but the Assembly polls held four months later has left it with nothing much to cheer, as it squandered an opportunity to regain Haryana and failed to make a mark in Jammu and Kashmir though it rode to power with the help of its ally National Conference.

The latest results diminish its clout in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, where the Lok Sabha numbers reluctantly made the Congress’ allies to be respectful to the grand old party.

This could give allies in poll-bound Maharashtra and Jharkhand a handle to ask the ‘big brother’ to have a reality check and insist on being more accommodative. 

One could also foresee the Congress losing its negotiating plank with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh where it is arguing for a larger chunk from the ten Assembly seats going to bypolls. The challenge for the Congress will be to rebut the narrative that it is still not able to fight the BJP one-on-one while claiming that the Lok Sabha result is not an aberration.

Also, the Congress will have to ensure that the upper hand the Opposition managed in the discourse in the past few months can see a dent and it will have to take the lead in ensuring that the BJP does not manage to rebound.

In both Haryana and J&K, the Congress exposed its recurring weakness exhibited in the past decade. It failed in cementing its narrative and reaping the benefits of goodwill earned during Lok Sabha polls, factionalism and poor candidate selection eating up its prospects, and reluctance to rein in warring leaders.

The Congress was reduced to six seats in J&K and in this it did not fare well in the Jammu region – winning just one – where it was the major opponent of the BJP. It quarrelled with the National Conference and had a friendly fight in six seats in Kashmir valley where it was hoping to cash in on Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra.

Along with the BJP, the Congress did not touch contentious issues like Article 370 in its campaign. Results showed that the Valley chose the National Conference while defeating independents and parties considered to be close to or proxies of the BJP.

If it was a junior partner in J&K, the Congress was the senior partner in Haryana but refused to bring in I.N.D.I.A. allies except CPI(M), which was allotted one seat. AAP and the CPI negotiated, but the Congress remained adamant citing their lack of influence on the ground.

Resourceful by all means, former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda dominated the Congress in Haryana and the party central leadership was unsuccessful in ensuring a level playing field for his detractors, including Kumari Selja, a Dalit. More than 70 of the 89 Congress candidates belonged to the Hooda faction while only a handful belonged to the Selja camp.

This impacted the cohesion of the Congress cadre belonging to the Jat and the Dalit communities. Selja’s defiance by not participating in the campaign for over a week after the leadership did not address her concerns impacted electioneering. The Congress appeared to have inadvertently helped in the drifting of the Dalits, who supported it in Lok Sabha, to the BJP.

The vote in Haryana was also a message to Hooda that ‘one-man, one-caste’ domination would not work, while reminding them that they did the same with the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections as they feared that a saffron party domination could result in their constitutional rights being curtailed. 

The Congress also did not manage to set a narrative for the election like in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

Though he was said to be upset with raging factionalism and lack of cohesion in decision-making, including in setting the narrative, Rahul cannot escape  responsibility as he did not put his foot down to discipline the regional satraps, including Hooda.

Apart from the electoral setback, the question is: will the results have an impact on his role as the Leader of Opposition?

Haryana Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here

J&K Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here

Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

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