Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Between BJP-Congress binary, regional parties in Assam bank on national parties

AGP was once Assam's strongest regional party and was in power twice in the state. But the party's popularity started dwindling as Congress regained power and Narendra Modi became the PM in 2014. AGP did not win a seat in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Barpeta/Guwahati: With a tricolor in his hands, Anupol Haloi, a worker of Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), once Assam's strongest regional party, shouts 'Jai Shri Ram' and 'Bharat Mata Ki Jai' — the slogans most often chanted by workers and leaders of BJP during election rallies. Haloi, a teacher in a private school in Barpeta town, situated about 80km from Guwahati, was campaigning for Phani Bhushan Choudhury, a veteran leader of AGP, the common candidate of AGP and BJP in Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency. Choudhury is pitted against Dipen Bayan of Congress.

When asked why voters in Barpeta would vote for Choudhry, Haloi said, "People will vote for the works done by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for Assam. People here knows that a vote to Chouhdury is a vote for Modi and our CM Himanta Biswa Sarma's vision for development."

Polarisation politics

Barpeta was a Muslim-dominated constituency till a delimitation exercise was carried out last year and it was reportedly made a Hindu-majority seat. Sirajuddin Ajmal of All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Abdul Khaleque of Congress was elected in 2014 and 2019, respectively.

But Congress this time replaced Khaleque with Deep Bayan, a Hindu candidate, while Choudhury, eight-time AGP MLA, has been fielded as BJP-AGP candidate to attract the Hindu voters. AIUDF, this time, decided not to fight in Barpeta given the change caused by the delimitation.

As BJP-Congress polarisation politics strongly takes centerstage in the Lok Sabha elections in Assam, the regional parties are banking on the national parties to remain relevant.

BJP has given tickets to two AGP candidates — Choudhury in Barpeta and Jabed Islam in Dhubri, which is still a Muslim-majority seat. AIUDF Chief Barduddin Ajmal was elected thrice since 2009 and is seeking re-election this time. Both Congress and BJP, interestingly, have been dubbing Ajmal and AIUDF as symbols of 'communal politics'.

But BJP believes that the AGP candidate has a chance this time in Dhubri, given the possibility of a division of Muslim votes between Ajmal and Rakibul Hussain, a former minister and a strong Muslim candidate representing Congress.

"We are confident this time as BJP has stronghold in four Assembly segments and at the same time AGP has a Mulsim vote bank too," CM Himanta Biswa Sarma told reporters in Guwahati, recently. AGP was once Assam's strongest regional party and was in power twice in the state (1985-1990 and 1996-2000), following the anti-foreigners movement between 1979 and 1985.

But the party's popularity started dwindling as Congress regained power and Narendra Modi became the PM in 2014. AGP did not win a seat in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It tally in the Assembly became negligible while Ajmal's party became the second biggest Opposition party in the Assembly. AGP joined hands with BJP ahead of Assembly elections in 2016.

Bodoland politics

BJP is also backing Jayanta Basumatary of United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), its new regional ally in Bodo heartland, Kokrajhar. The UPPL became an ally of BJP after a new Bodoland accord was signed in 2020, bringing an end to decades-old militancy in the region. The party chief Promod Boro believes people would vote for UPPL-BJP candidate as the accord brought peace to the region and PM Modi gave special attention to development in the Bodoland region.

In return, the UPPL is backing BJP candidates in Darrang-Udalguri and Tezpur, two other constituencies having sizeable Bodo voters. Bodoland People's Front (BPF), another regional party, decided to field its candidate in Kokrajhar and Darrang-Udalguri after BJP rejected its request for an alliance.

Polling in Dhubri, Kokrajhar and Barpeta are scheduled in the third phase on May 7.

Congress camp

As BJP takes the major regional parties in its fold, Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal joined the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A. bloc and are supporting Congress candidates in 13 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats.

The bloc fielded AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi in Dibrugarh Lok Sabha constituency, where Union Minister Sarbanada Sonowal is his strong contender. The polling for five Lok Sabha seats including Dibrugarh was conducted on April 19. "If you elect Lurinjyoti to Lok Sabha, both AJP and Raijor Dal will merge to defeat BJP in the Assembly elections in 2026," Akhil Gogoi said just ahead of first phase of polling on April 19.