Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Priyanka fights tooth & nail to save Congress' last bastion but is BJP suffering dissent in Raebareli?

Sonia’s decision to move to Rajya Sabha only added to the saffron party’s hopes to dislodge Congress from its last bastion in Uttar Pradesh. Everything appeared to be going as per the plan for the BJP until Rahul entered the fray and now the party seems to be feeling some heat brought on by dissent.

Lucknow: As one reaches Bacharawan, an assembly segment of Raebareli Lok Sabha constituency, barely 50 kilometres from Lucknow, a BJP stronghold, the electoral horizon suddenly changes and one comes across Congress party offices filled with enthusiastic workers arranging banners and posters and other campaign materials.

Raebareli is perhaps the only Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh, where Congress has a well-oiled organisation at the block and booth levels. Amethi too had similar organisational structure but it more or less disappeared after Rahul Gandhi lost to union minister Smriti Irani in 2019. Rahul is now contesting from Raebareli, which was represented in Lok Sabha by his mother and former Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who had been winning from here since 2004. It was the only seat in Uttar Pradesh where Congress had emerged victorious in the 2019 LS polls.

BJP had its eyes set on Raebareli after it wrested Amethi from Congress in 2019 LS elections.

Pulling all stops

Sonia’s decision to move to Rajya Sabha only added to the saffron party’s hopes to dislodge Congress from its last bastion in UP.

BJP managed to bring Aditi Singh, daughter of Akhilesh Singh, who created a record of sorts by winning the Raebareli Sadar assembly seat five times for Congress and then as an independent, to its fold. Aditi had also won the seat as Congress nominee in 2017 but later joined the BJP and won it again in 2022 assembly polls.

The saffron party also roped in Samajwadi Party (SP) MLA from Bacharawan and a prominent Brahmin leader Manoj Pandey a few months back apparently to garner support of the community, which forms around 11 per cent of the electorate here.

BJP also made Buddhilal Pasi, who hailed from Dalit community, its district president. Dalits form around 34 per cent of the total electorate here and are considered to be traditional Congress voters.

'Rahul' factor, a rebellion of sorts?

Everything appeared to be going as per the plan for the BJP until Rahul entered the fray and a veiled rebellion by Aditi and Pandey, both of whom had old rivalry with the saffron party nominee Dinesh Pratap Singh. Both Pandey and Aditi have so far kept away from campaigning. Union home minister Amit Shah was forced to go to Pandey’s house to placate him.

Priyanka's herculean efforts

Congress’ campaign is almost entirely being taken care of by party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who has been addressing dozens of small and big election rallies on a daily basis. Congress has also deployed former Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel here. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge had also campaigned here. Congress also plans to get SP president Akhilesh Yadav and his wife Dimple Yadav to hold a road show here.

Muslims and Yadas, who together form around 20 percent of the electorate, are solidly behind the grand old party but BJP has been able to make a dent in the upper caste, OBC and Dalit vote bank of Congress party in the past few years which was reflected in the declining vote share of Sonia Gandhi since 2009.

In 2014 Sonia secured 64 per cent votes while her BJP rival bagged 21 per cent.

In 2019 Sonia’s vote share declined to 55.80 per cent while BJP’s vote share jumped to 38.36 per cent.

Loyal to Gandhis still?

The decline in the vote share, notwithstanding, a large section of the electorate still appears to be emotionally attached with Congress. ‘’The Gandhi family has done a lot for this constituency," says Ram Shankar Pandey, a resident of Bacharawan.

While the BJP has been trying to get the caste equations right, Congress has been harping on issues like unemployment, Agniveer, stray cattle and rising prices and the party appears to have succeeded in getting some traction among the youths.

"Competitive exam paper leaks have become common in the state....I don’t think I will be able to get a government job,’’ said Shiv Kumar, a resident of Sareni.

Another factor that may help the Congress is the SP-Congress' alliance, has a significant presence in the constituency. Of the six assembly seats in Raebareli district, the SP had won as many as four in the 2022 assembly polls. The BJP had won the remaining two.

Polling here will take place on May 20. It remains to be seen if the Congress is able to save its last bastion in the state in the ongoing Lok Sabha Elections.