Lok Sabha Elections 2024: What history shows us about the accuracy of Exit Polls

The 18th Lok Sabha elections is on the verge of completion. As counting progresses briskly, it is evident that BJP is struggling to make it past the 300 mark. Coming as a reality check to the 'ab ki baar, 400 paar' saffron brigade, it is still to be seen how this will affect Narendra Modi's ambitions of becoming India's prime minister for the third term. However, what is evident is the fallibility of exit polls in closely contested elections in a nation that is increasingly getting more polarised.

Compared to the 2019 tally of 303 seats, BJP has seen a significant dip in performance in 2024.

Thus, the question is -- is there a point to exit polls besides adding to the election hoopla of TV news broadcasts and stock market upheavals? How accurate are they really?

How accurate are exit polls?

History has showed that exit polls can sometimes be way off the mark. One of the most prominent and recent examples is that of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

The exit polls in 2004 predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA, led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee's BJP government, with most claiming that the NDA are set to win something around 240 to 275 seats. But on the contrary, Congress and its allies formed the government at the Centre, winning as many as 216 seats.

Now, let's look at the previous two general elections of the country - 2014 and 2019.

The 2014 Lok Sabha polls ushered in the era of the current BJP government, with Narendra Modi at the helm. While most exit polls predicted a shift in power and the formation of a new government, they failed to gauge the magnanimity of the victory. The average of most well-known exit poll surveys predicted that the NDA government will win 283 seats, while in reality, they ended up with a whopping 336 seats, with BJP alone amassing 282. The UPA government managed a meagre 60 seats, after they were tipped to win 105 seats (average figure of the exit poll predictions).

In 2019, the exit poll forecasts weren't too erroneous, but still not accurate enough. The exit survey average showed the BJP-led NDA government's tally at 306, while the Congress-led UPA government's at 120. In the end, the NDA won as many as 352 seats with the BJP finishing at 303, while the UPA ended up with 93 seats with the Congress standing at 52.

Therefore, it can be said that there is some weight in the claims of the sceptics. Here's taking a look at the process of conducting an exit poll.

What are exit polls and how are they conducted?

Exit polls are exactly how they sound like. The Election Commission of India defines exit polls to be a survey conducted based on a set of questions that are asked to voters exiting the polling stations after casting their vote.

The most common way of conducting such a survey is collection of samples. These samples are essentially what the voters feel about a particular party and its works in the past and current period. The questions asked to voters also include aspects that delve into why they chose to vote for a particular party, only if they are willing to share the details.

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