Lok Sabha Elections 2024: With fate of more than half the seats sealed, parties get ready for final push

New Delhi: This edition of the Lok Sabha elections crossed the halfway mark on May 7 when people chose their future MPs in 284 of the 543 seats, prompting parties to recalibrate their strategies for the final push that will see whether the NDA returns to power or the I.N.D.I.A upsets its calculations.

While the BJP has almost abandoned the ‘400 paar’ rhetoric following a spirited Congress campaign aimed at Dalits who feared it was a ploy to rewrite the Constitution and scrap quotas, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has added communal overtones to the campaign shrillness. The latest was his assertion that Congress would give the minorities preference in the Indian cricket team.

Though Sam Pitroda and his ilk managed to land it in the soup, the Congress has not fallen into the BJP's trap so far while sticking to its core agenda of saving the Constitution, caste census, quota, jobs and social security. It is to be seen whether the party will bite Modi’s ‘Adani-Ambani’ bait, though the BJP has so far not managed to set the campaign agenda.

With pollsters dubbing it a ‘no wave’ election, Modi has moved from one issue to another but by weaving in the Hindutva rhetoric. It seems the BJP has realised that the inauguration of the Ram temple has not given it any visible push in electoral terms. Similarly, while responding to the BJP’s attacks, the Congress has managed to ensure that it does not deviate from its ‘Nyay’ agenda. 

So far, voting in 20 states and Union Territories has been completed. The process is yet to start in ten states and UTs (112 seats) and these places would see voting between May 13 and June 1. The voting in six states, including Bihar, UP and West Bengal, has started and the phase-wise process will be over only by June 1.

In the 20 states and UTs where polls have concluded (186 seats in total), the NDA won 119 seats in 2019 while the Opposition bloc was reduced to 67. 

On paper, I.N.D.I.A hopes to narrow down this gap through an impressive show in Karnataka where it won just one seat last time and some gains in Rajasthan and Gujarat where all its candidates had lost. At the same time, it is to be seen whether the Opposition can ensure that there is no loss this time in Tamil Nadu where it won 38 of the 39 seats in 2019.

I.N.D.I.A hopes to reduce the BJP-led NDA to less than 100 in these states while increasing its tally to somewhere around 85. For this, Congress will have to improve its strike rate.

In ten states that are yet to go to polls, the saffron party is pinning hopes on an improved show in Telangana, Odisha and Punjab, and retaining Haryana, Himachal and Delhi where it left no seats to its opponents last time. 

It is to be seen how the BJP will manage to do this at a time when the Congress is hoping for better performance in Telangana, Haryana and Himachal on its own and in Delhi by riding on an alliance with AAP, which is confident that its supremo Arvind Kejriwal will get interim bail and can campaign. Odisha is likely to witness a spirited fight between BJD and BJP.

Latest developments in Haryana where three independents have withdrawn support to the BJP government has also cast a shadow on its prospects. Congress is not staking a claim for power but wants fresh polls, which are otherwise due in October this year.

Both sides are biting their nails on how they will perform in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh — where polls have started from the first phase itself and are continuing. The BJP is staring at the possibility of some losses on its side in Bihar and Maharashtra. 

In Maharashtra where the BJP engineered splits in Shiv Sena and NCP, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is giving a spirited counter and is expected to gain something through sympathy factor. In Bihar where the JD(U) dumped its ‘Mahagathbandhan’ allies for the BJP, the Opposition is hoping for a better show.