Lok Sabha polls 2024: Will Annamalai deliver for BJP in Tamil Nadu?

Chennai: K Annamalai has taken a bold step by stitching together an alliance under the BJP’s leadership in Tamil Nadu, a year after floating the idea of the party going solo, beginning with the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, to gain people’s trust in the long run.

With the formation of a new alliance comprising parties that are considered weak when compared to its erstwhile partner, AIADMK, the BJP is nonetheless presenting a multitude of candidates. This strategic manoeuvre places the BJP and Annamalai at the crux of a potential triumph or downfall in the state. 

The stakes are quite high for the BJP, which is aiming to increase its vote share—5.75% is what the party scored in the 2022 civic body elections—to a double-digit number, finishing as the runner-up in a quarter of the 39 Lok Sabha seats and winning at least a couple of seats. 

It was in March 2023 that Annamalai first spoke about snapping ties with the AIADMK, a key ally. Even before the BJP thought about his plans, the Dravidian major granted his wish by walking out of the NDA in September.

Annamalai remained firm, despite the BJP top brass thinking otherwise, even as every effort aimed at a patch-up with the AIADMK was spurned by the latter. The idea is that the seeds of the party’s growth should be sown by contesting alone without an alliance with the Dravidian majors if the BJP is serious about emerging as an alternative to them. 

The biggest question on everyone’s mind is whether Annamalai will deliver for the BJP in Tamil Nadu, a state that has eluded the saffron flag for decades. 

No doubt, the cadre is upbeat about the BJP’s prospects, and they believe Annamalai’s En Mann, En Makkal yatra, covering all 234 assembly constituencies in seven months, has taken the party’s symbol to every part of the state. The party also feels that the aggressive posturing by Annamalai, who takes both the DMK and AIADMK head-on, will bring people who are looking for an alternative to the Dravidian majors to the BJP. 

The alliance with PMK and AIADMK rebels, TTV Dhinakaran and OPS, could help the BJP in the northern and southern parts of the state, while the party hopes it can inroad into western TN on its own as Annamalai himself hails from the region and belongs to a dominant caste, the Gounders. 

“BJP will certainly reach the double-digit mark in vote share on its own, while the alliance can poll about 20% votes provided it splits the anti-government and anti-DMK votes. The NDA should ensure that the anti-government votes don't go to the AIADMK en masse. The key factor is who gets the most anti-DMK votes,” senior journalist Maalan Narayanan told DH.

According to R Bhagwan Singh, who covered Tamil Nadu for over three decades, the biggest challenge before Annamalai is to undo the rural Dravidian mindset that the BJP is “total saffron” and “non-inclusive” and convince people to vote for his party.

"Annamalai, as the BJP chief, has set up the best political environment possible on this Dravidian turf. He has got all he wanted and cannot wish for more except that he is now loaded with the huge responsibility to deliver on the promise of a big score this election,” Singh told DH. 

By contesting in about 23 seats, the BJP believes it can take the message of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to these constituencies and test the grassroots machinery in 2024 to prepare the party for the 2026 Assembly polls, Maalan said. 

Singh agrees, “Annamalai has made clear his ultimate goal is the assembly elections. 2024 is the preparatory ground for 2026. The tune is set. I am not saying the song is done.”