Lok Sabha Polls 2024 | Mehbooba faces uphill battle to reclaim Anantnag

Anantnag: The newly-carved Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat, the only constituency in the Union Territory spread between both Kashmir and Jammu regions, is a battleground characterised by a unique mix of political dynamics following the delimitation exercise.

Pitted against each other are two prominent figures: Mehbooba Mufti of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Mian Altaf, an influential tribal leader representing the National Conference (NC). The constituency goes to polls on May 7 in the third phase.

The decision by the Delimitation Commission to redraw the Anantnag constituency's map by adding Assembly segments from Rajouri and Poonch districts of Jammu region has added a new dimension to the electoral landscape. This move, viewed by many as an attempt by the BJP to penetrate Kashmir, underscores the strategic significance of the constituency in national politics.

It was being widely debated whether the Anantnag-Rajouri seat would provide the BJP its much-desired gateway to the Valley. However, the BJP sprang a surprise by opting out of the race this time.

Former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, who formed his own party in 2022 after leaving the Congress, was also expected to contest from the seat. However, he opted out of the race at the last moment. This leaves Mehbooba and Altaf in a direct contest.

Mehbooba, a seasoned politician and former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, brings with her a strong base of support, particularly in Anantnag and Kulgam districts of south Kashmir. Her leadership is characterised by a focus on regional autonomy and engagement with separatist sentiments, making her a polarising figure in the region.

On the other hand, Altaf, known for his influence among tribal communities, presents a formidable challenge to Mufti's dominance. His affiliation with the NC adds a layer of institutional support and broader political network to his campaign. As the NC is being supported by the Congress as part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, Altaf’s chances of victory have increased.

Altaf hails from Wangath area of Ganderbal in central Kashmir and his family has political and spiritual influence on tribal communities across J&K. His family members have won nine Assembly polls since 1967 which included his five victories since 1987. He also has close family relations with some influential tribal families in Rajouri, which falls in the same constituency.

The constituency itself is a melting pot of diverse demographics, encompassing both urban and rural areas, along with a significant tribal population in border districts of Rajouri and Poonch.  

The constituency comprises 18 Assembly segments, 11 in Kashmir and 7 in Rajouri-Poonch with an electorate of 19,25,450 votes. The mixing of terrains has added to the arena new dimensions such as Pahari-Gujjar politics, mix of Hindu-Muslim population and Jammu versus Kashmir political angle.

It is perceived that the BJP will be providing tactical support to Altaf Bukhari-led J&K Apni Party’s candidate Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, a Pahari leader.

With Mehbooba and Altaf vying for supremacy in this crucial constituency, the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat promises a closely contested battle, with far-reaching implications for the political future of Jammu and Kashmir.

The electoral history of the constituency reveals a pattern of fluctuating voter preferences. While the Congress and the NC have enjoyed periods of ascendancy, recent years have seen a surge in support for the PDP and the NC.