Does BJP have a hand in Engineer Rashid’s political prominence?
While one cannot imagine an election in Jammu & Kashmir without intensifying political bickering, enigma, and intrigues, this time the stakes are manifold higher, and that means manifold more political drama. The element of enigma is provided by the personality cult surrounding Abdul Rashid Sheikh, a political rebel operating within the system, but different from his ‘mainstream’ colleagues because of his exhibition of hostility towards the system.
A former legislator from Langate, Engineer Rashid, as he is popularly known in the Kashmir valley, attracted the Kashmiri masses, especially the youth in the northern region from where he hails. The State's repressive treatment of him — he was often roughed up by cops and dragged out of the legislature — lent a coat of relatability to his persona.
When J&K's special status was abrogated on August 5, 2019, New Delhi made no distinction between pro-resistance leaders and the ‘mainstream’ with which it had a history of power-sharing. All were under arrest, though with varying restrictions.
Rashid's bolstering of political acceptability happened because unlike other mainstream leaders who were eventually let off, he remained in jail for five years, and was released on September 11.
In the meantime, the traditional political players in the Valley regrouped and boosted their standing among the people, even as an interaction with a cross-section of Kashmiris underscored that their predilection for the now-defunct Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) was a tactical one driven by the urgency to preclude the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s proxy political parties from grabbing power. The PAGD was able to trounce the BJP's manoeuvres in the District Development Council elections held in November-December 2020.
But then the PAGD frayed. The National Conference (NC)'s inner chamber may have assessed that the people were more likely to back it in the event of a contest against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Based on respondents’ views in different pockets of North and South Kashmir, two things could be said of their take on elections: One, an elected government was imperative to end the monopolisation of power by a handful of bureaucrats who are inaccessible and non-consultative. Two, in a very complex political terrain, there was an inclination for — not necessarily endorsement of — the NC.
Rashid's release from prison together with the Jamaat-e-Islami’s return to electoral politics is said to have overhauled the election dynamics. The first confirmation came in the form of an explosion of young voters' footfall in his son Abrar's public meetings, as he rallied support for the then-jailed politician in the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, exhorting, "Tihar ka badla vote se". NC’s Omar Abdullah lost the election in Baramulla even as his party swept Kashmir's other two constituencies — Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri.
Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) is now contesting from 34 seats. It has also made a strategic alliance with the banned Jamaat-e-Islami. Rashid’s message, "peace on our terms, not yours [Delhi's]" is resonating with the people. It cannot be denied that there is a halo around him so strong that people have been unwilling to critique — or accept others critiquing — his politics.
Rashid and a handful of individuals associated with Jamaat’s ideology might ride on their perceived ‘more sacred’ political image and win a sizeable number of seats in the Assembly. But then, that’s a neat, unhindered trajectory. In a make-or-break election, when so much is at stake not only for the Kashmiris but also the power apparatus in New Delhi and Srinagar, can anything be so neat?
What has become a source of political rumination is that despite its unchecked authoritarian character and known disdain for Jamaat, New Delhi hasn’t hindered either Rashid or the Jamaat’s electoral outing for now. This is the same BJP under whose watch two chief ministers have been put in jail, and 141 Opposition MPs were suspended in December while questioning a security breach in Parliament.
In Kashmir, the lieutenant governor has earned notoriety for booking journalists under anti-terror laws and terminating government employees over suspicion of anti-national conduct.
So, what does New Delhi’s decision to allow an unhindered playfield to Rashid telegraph? Has New Delhi something to gain from his political presence? Some questions need deeper contemplation. To begin with, what was the need to keep Rashid in jail for five years?
This is an important question as Rashid owes his current formidable status to his political persecution. What was the threat assessment by New Delhi? Could he have mobilised tens of lakhs of Kashmiris in the immediate aftermath of the abrogation of the special status and punctured the ‘normalcy narrative’ of the Narendra Modi regime? Could he have travelled abroad and created a global coalition of think-tankers and unleashed them against the government? Well, there were enough US Congressional hearings on Kashmir, but the Government of India hasn’t batted an eyelid over it. Could he have assembled more resourceful lawyers than his colleagues did and built a more persuasive case in the Supreme Court to overturn the August 5 edict? Could he have been instrumental in reforming adverse public opinion in India regarding Kashmir?
If the answer to these questions is ‘no’, then what was the incentive to put Rashid behind bars for five years? It cannot be merely retribution, for Rashid until his persecution didn’t have any considerable following beyond his constituency. He lost the 2019 Baramulla Lok Sabha seat to the NC. So, was he persecuted with an underlying design to make him appear ‘taller’ and ‘holier’, and release him on the frontrunners in the elections?
It is an open secret that what the BJP had initially planned was to facilitate a band of proxies to form the government in J&K. But it got exposed, and the plan was aborted. It would be naive to imagine, however, that the BJP will passively watch a local government get popularly elected. A closer inspection of the BJP’s politics gives room to believe that what it aims to achieve in Kashmir is political uncertainty by the creation of a divided field. That’s the only card it now has in its armoury.
The NC has so far been able to preclude the BJP’s attempts to fragment its ranks. As an organisation, it withstood the application of brute power against it. Even the PDP, despite its earlier vertical split, is now attracting defectors back to its fold. Rashid may have the best integrity, but in terms of realpolitik, it is the NC and the PDP (in that order) that are the BJP’s biggest worry.
If an NC-Congress government forms, with significant PDP legislators to provide support, the BJP’s game in the Valley will be over. It will be next to impossible for them to fragment or coerce. Whereas in the case of new formations, be it the AIP or the Jamaat, one is not sure whether they will be able to hold on. New Delhi has historically been wary of single-party majority in J&K. The fact that J&K after 1996 never saw single-party rule is often attributed to back-room manipulations by the agencies.
While Rashid cannot be accused of colluding with New Delhi, the circumstances that have catapulted him to political prominence and its likely fallout in the composition of the next J&K Assembly appear to be a New Delhi-construct.
(Anando Bhakto is a New Delhi-based journalist and a World Press Institute fellow.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.