Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections 2024 | Political landscape shifts in J&K as separatists, independents challenge NC, PDP

Srinagar: With separatist leaders, who once called for election boycotts, now joining the fray, dynastic political parties in Jammu and Kashmir – National Conference and PDP -face a tough challenge to hold the forte in the backdrop of changing political landscape in the Union Territory (UT).

The entry of independent candidates supported by the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), a major religio-political organization, as well as jailed separatist leader and cleric Sarjan Barkati and the brother of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, has marked a notable change in the political dynamics. Additionally, figures like jailed MP Engineer Rashid, who promotes a softer form of separatism, are also making their presence felt.

Propelled by Engineer Rashid’s spectacular victory in Lok Sabha polls where he defeated National Conference (NC) vice president and former chief minister Omar Abdullah from Baramulla parliamentary seat in June, these people are throwing their hat in the election ring.

This defeat was a significant setback for Omar, who has since accused the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of supporting independent candidates and separatists to fracture his vote base. “Vested interests are backing numerous independent candidates in J&K to divide the mandate and silence secular voices,” Abdullah claimed at a recent rally.

Unlike Omar, PDP president and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti has not addressed the participation of separatist leaders in the elections. Instead, she has accused New Delhi of supporting Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) to further divide the vote. “The administration is now promoting AIP as a proxy, providing them with money and other support,” she claimed.

The Lok Sabha polls were a precursor to the much larger battle at hand as both Omar and Mehbooba lost from Baramulla and Anantnag constituencies respectively.

Mehbooba has opted out of Assembly polls saying the “reduced” power of the legislative assembly in the union territory would not allow her to fulfill her party’s agenda even if she were to become the chief minister. However, she has fielded her daughter Iltija Mufti from the family bastion Bijbehera seat in Anantnag.

Omar, after initial hesitation, is contesting from the historically significant Ganderbal seat, which has been represented by his family for three generations. His concern over Ganderbal's outcome led him to file nomination papers for the Shia-dominated Budgam seat, where the NC has a traditional support base.

In Ganderbal, he faces a challenge from Barkati, a prominent separatist figure from the 2016 unrest. In Budgam, the PDP has fielded Aga Muntazir Mehdi, a notable Shia cleric and the son of Hurriyat executive member Aga Syed Hassan, who is also a cousin of NC leader Aga Ruhullah.

Meanwhile, the candidacy of a former Jamaat-e-Islami member as an independent from Bijbehera could complicate the PDP’s efforts.

A defeat for Iltija Mufti could weaken the Mufti family's influence over the party, already weakened by past BJP ties and the defection of key leaders. A defeat at both the places could relegate Omar to political oblivion.