J&K Assembly Election 2024: Political uncertainty grows as polls near final phase

Srinagar: As the final phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls approaches, the political atmosphere in the Union Territory is charged with uncertainty, hinting at a potential fractured mandate.

The polls took place in two phases on September 18 and 25, with the last phase set for October 1 and vote counting scheduled for October 8.

Political parties are already strategizing for the post-election landscape. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, appears poised to play a crucial role in the event of a hung assembly.

Mehbooba has expressed her willingness to ally with the National Conference (NC) to prevent the BJP from gaining power. “There will be a secular government in J&K, and the PDP will be a key player in its formation,” she stated at an election rally in Jammu.

Analysts predict that while the NC is likely to secure a majority of its seats from the Kashmir region, the BJP is focused on consolidating its support in the Hindu-majority Jammu area, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and other high-profile saffron party leaders have launched a relentless election campaign.

Projections suggest the NC could win around 26 seats, with the BJP not far behind, also approaching the 25-seat mark. The Congress is expected to secure approximately 12 seats, while the PDP may garner around 10, with smaller parties and independents taking the remainder.

In the 90-member J&K Assembly, a single party or a coalition requires 46 seats to form a government. Despite their pre-poll alliance, the Congress and NC may fall short of this number, making support from the PDP, independents, and smaller parties critical for any government formation.

Political commentator Professor Gul Muhammad Wani said that if the BJP secures over 25 seats in Jammu, it will be challenging for the Kashmir-centric parties, NC and PDP, to block its ascension to power.

He recalled the 2014 assembly elections when the PDP, having won 28 seats from Kashmir, allied with the BJP despite offers of support from the NC and Congress.

Concerns within the NC-Congress alliance were heightened by Omar Abdullah’s recent remarks that the Congress has not performed as well as expected in Jammu's plains, suggesting internal discord.

If the election results mirror the 2014 scenario, the possibility of an NC-BJP alliance cannot be dismissed, adding another layer of complexity to the unfolding political drama in Jammu and Kashmir.

Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.