Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections 2024: A chance to return power to people?

As Jammu and Kashmir prepares for its first assembly elections in a decade, it will not only test the resilience of political parties in a conflict-ridden landscape but also reveal whether alliances against the Bharatiya Janata Party can pose a formidable challenge to the party in power at the Centre.

Despite the elections, first after the abrogation of the erstwhile state’s special status under Article 370 of the Constitution of India, the Union Territory's assembly will continue to operate under the shadow of the Lieutenant Governor's authority. It raises questions about the extent of the autonomy and real power for governance the elected representatives will wield.

The effectiveness of the new assembly, its relationship with the L-G, and its ability to address the needs of the people within the framework of a UT will determine the long-term impact of these elections on J&K’s political landscape.

The National Conference has allied with the Congress for the assembly polls. Some separatist leaders, including banned Jamaat-e-Islami, have also joined the election fray. Jailed MP Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party is carrying forward the momentum it gained during the parliamentary polls and hopes to surge further in the assembly polls, which may deliver a fractured verdict.

With the NC not keen to allow the People’s Democratic Party into the alliance, the Congress had no choice but to comply with the terms set by its more electorally promising partner and shut the door on Mehbooba Mufti’s party, which has been a constituent of broader I.N.D.I.A bloc at the national level.

Gul Muhammad Wani, who retired as head of Kashmir University’s Department of Political Science, describes the NC-Congress alliance as “less about natural partnership and more about the necessity for both parties”, who share a troubled history. “The latest alliance is also politically significant since the NC manifesto, released last week, promises the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A, an issue the Congress has skirted in the past,” he told DH.

“The elected governments don’t have power in UT setups. It is expected that there will be recurring friction between the UT government and New Delhi over the restoration of statehood and Article 370, land and job rights, security and law enforcement, the release of prisoners, governance and administrative powers,” he said.

The relationship between the Congress and the NC has seen many ups and downs over the decades – from the incarceration of the NC founder Sheikh Abdullah in the 1950s, to their merger in the 1960s, the NC’s revival in the 1970s, the NC’s split and sacking of the Farooq Abdullah government in the 1980s, the NC joining the BJP-led NDA in the 1990s to the Congress joining the Omar Abdullah-led government in the 2000s.

It will also be interesting to see whether the BJP fields candidates in the Kashmir assembly segments or focuses solely on Jammu, as it did in the Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP Central Election Committee met in Delhi recently to discuss candidates for the assembly elections in J&K. Chairing the meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is the party’s prime poll mascot, reportedly emphasised winnability as one of the key factors in choosing candidates.

The decision of some former militants, separatists, and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami is influenced by the success of Engineer Rashid who defeated Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference president Sajad Gani Lone in the Lok Sabha polls despite being in jail.

Sajad Lone, whom his political rivals accuse of being a proxy of the BJP, came to defend the decision of the Jamaat to contest the polls. “They (Jamaat) have experienced imprisonment, torture, and the most harrowing of times. They know what pain is and are therefore in a better position to understand the suffering of others,” he said after the Jamaat fielded its candidates as independents.

The success of the assembly in addressing the people’s aspirations, despite its limitations, will be key to restoring faith in democratic processes and in ensuring that the region’s transition into a UT is seen as a step forward rather than a regression.

The permutations and combinations in the shapes of alliances and tacit understandings between political players and the ticket distributions by the different parties will have a definite bearing on the outcomes which is something to be keenly watched.