BJP eyeing fourth win in Madhya Pradesh in two decades; A SWOT analysis of the ruling party

The Bharatiya Janata Party will have to battle anti-incumbency, overcome infighting, and face voters amid the fatigue against the state leadership of more than 16 years to fend off resurgent Congress in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh assembly polls.

After winning three consecutive polls in 2003, 2008 and 2013, the BJP lost to the Congress in 2018 but managed to come back to power after the Kamal Nath-led government collapsed in March 2020.

Here is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of the BJP in the central state, where the saffron party and the Congress are traditional rivals.

Strengths:

* BJP is relying heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charisma and mass appeal of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, an OBC leader known for his down-to-earth image.

*The ruling party is banking on its outreach to attract women voters and has launched dedicated schemes like 'Ladli Bahna Yojana'. Eligible women get Rs 1,250 per month under this scheme, and the government has promised to increase this dole up to Rs 3,000 per month.

*A robust organisational set-up which remains in the “election mode” throughout the year. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has termed the party organisation in MP as one of the “best” in the country.

*The BJP is also counting on the plank of Hindutva, development and “double engine” growth. Shah, considered a master strategist, has been overseeing the preparations.

*The ruling party wants to leverage the mass appeal after some of its MPs and some Union ministers hailing from the state are being fielded in the fray.

*The saffron party has also given the ticket to its national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, a key strategist and crowd-puller.

Weaknesses:

*Potential anti-incumbency as the saffron party has been at the helm in the state since 2003, barring a brief setback from December 2018 to March 2020.

*BJP is facing rumblings in the organisation as many leaders who had sided with Jyotiraditya Scindia, which caused the collapse of the Congress government, have returned to their parent party.

*A fatigue factor is setting in against CM Chouhan who has been at the helm for 18 years. Many contenders to the post of the chief minister.

*Congress has launched a strident campaign against alleged corruption, rise in the crime against women, atrocities against Dalits and tribals, rising inflation and unemployment among other issues.

Opportunities:

*By being in power for nearly two decades, the BJP has implemented many promises it had made to women voters and other sections through welfare schemes.

*In the event of INDIA allies Congress, AAP and Samajwadi Party contesting separately, such a development will favour the BJP.

*A controversy over “Sanatan Dharma” comes in handy to reinforce BJP's image as the protector of Hindus. BJP raked up the comments of DMK leaders during the recent Jan Ashirwad Yatra.

*Traditionally, SP, BSP and other parties, except Congress, are marginal players in MP politics.

Threats:

*Infighting within the BJP has largely been kept under wraps due to strong central leadership, but a defeat may see the fissures come out in the open.

*In case of a hung Assembly, the BJP may find it difficult to find an ally to cobble a majority.

*Congress has gained most of the lost ground since 2003 when it won just 38 seats, but made a comeback by winning 114 constituencies in 2018.

*In 2003, the BJP won 173 seats but its tally dropped to 143 in 2008. In 2013, BJP bagged 165 seats but it lost the majority in 2018 when its score dropped to 109.

*Many leaders of the BJP, some dedicated to the Sangh ideology, have joined Congress. Some old Sangh faces formed a new party.

*The Congress has assured many 'guarantees' like the waiver of farm loans, the revival of the old pension scheme and up to 100 units of free electricity.