Triangular contest in Mizoram, fate test for BJP

A three-way contest is expected in Mizoram on Tuesday as the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), the Opposition Zoram People's Party (ZPM), and Congress vie for victory in the upcoming polling for all 40 Assembly constituencies. Mizoram, with just 8.57 lakh eligible voters, is the smallest of the five states holding Assembly elections before the upcoming Lok Sabha polls next year.

The Chief Electoral Officer of Mizoram, Madhup Vyas, informed reporters in Aizawl on Monday that nearly 6,000 polling personnel will oversee the voting process in 1,276 polling stations, with security provided by the state police and 50 companies of central paramilitary forces. A total of 174 candidates, including 18 women, are competing in the elections.

Officials have reported that a total of 14,885 individuals have already voted via postal ballots and through the provision of home voting, particularly for those aged 80 and above and individuals with disabilities.

The polling is scheduled to take place between 7 a.m. and 4 p.m.

Mizoram has consistently maintained a high voter turnout, with the state recording an impressive 81.31 percent turnout during the 2018 Assembly elections.

Three-way contest:

Elections in Mizoram have historically been a head-to-head contest between the regional MNF and Congress, dating back to when Mizoram achieved statehood in 1987. However, this time around, the primary battle is expected to be between the MNF and the relatively new regional party, ZPM, with Congress considered the third major player in the competition.

The ruling MNF is confident in its ability to retain power, largely owing to its "pro-Mizo" stance, particularly in light of the conflicts in neighboring Myanmar and Manipur. On the other hand, ZPM has pledged to provide voters with a "new system" and a corruption-free government, aiming to wrest power from the MNF. Meanwhile, Congress is optimistic about returning to power, offering welfare schemes akin to those in Karnataka and Rajasthan.

In the 2018 elections, MNF made a comeback to power after a decade, securing 26 seats, while Congress was relegated to third place with only five seats. Notably, ZPM candidates, who ran as Independents, surprised many by winning seven seats. Mizoram's Chief Minister, Zoramthanga, has expressed confidence that his party would secure at least 25 seats this time. MNF, ZPM, and Congress are competing in all 40 seats, while the BJP has fielded candidates in 23 seats.

BJP's fate test:

In the 2018 elections, the BJP managed to win just one out of the 36 seats it contested. This time, the party is primarily focusing on minority-dominated constituencies (non-Christians) and has enlisted the support of two turncoats from the MNF, including a former Speaker and a former minister, in an attempt to increase its seat count. The BJP has asserted that no party will secure an absolute majority and that its support will be needed to form the new government. However, many observers believe that the BJP is unlikely to have a significant impact, as it is still perceived as "anti-Christian" in Mizoram, a state where 87 percent of the population follows the Christian faith.

"It is going to be a neck-to-neck fight between the MNF and ZPM. BJP is not in the race," J Doungel, a professor of political science at Mizoram University, told DH. The Congress has also sought to portray the BJP as a threat to Mizoram's Christian community, labeling both the MNF and ZPM as potential "entry points" for the BJP. These elections will also determine the success of the BJP's efforts to reach out to the Christian community, which faced setbacks in Meghalaya, where the party won only two out of 60 Assembly seats it contested earlier this year. In Nagaland, another Christian-majority state, the BJP secured 12 seats when it entered into a pre-poll alliance with its regional ally NDPP and became part of the coalition government for a second term.

Total seats: 40 (39 reserved for ST)

Total voters: 8,57,063

Female: 4,39026 (51.3%)

Male: 4,13062 (48.7%)

Polling stations: 1,276

2018 results:

MNF: 26

Independents (including ZPM): 08

Congress: 05

BJP: 01