Modi's guarantee, polarisation outweigh welfarism in Rajasthan

Jaipur: The people of Rajasthan do not believe in any kind of jaadugari. Rejecting the magical web of welfare schemes and future promises, they sided with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guarantees and the double-engine sarkar moniker, using their tried and tested revolving door formula.

BJP won comfortably in Rajasthan, winning 115 in the 200-member Assembly. Congress had to be satisfied with 69 seats, down at least by 39 seats they had won in 2018. Congress had come to power in the desert state in 2018 with 99 seats initially. BJP has increased its vote share to 41.8 per cent, up from 38.77 per cent in 2018. Congress, meanwhile, has managed a marginal increase in its vote share, capping at 39.49 per cent against 39.30 per cent in 2018.

BJP in one of its most vituperative campaigns touched upon corruption as in the red diary episode, anger against MLAs and ministers, deteriorating law and order situation, especially in the context of women's security, exam paper leaks and was able to manipulate the polarisation angle effectively. Udaipur tailor Kanhaiya Lal’s murder, the acquittal of four members of the minority community in 2008 Jaipur bomb blast, the dilution of Sanatan Dharma, and the inauguration of grandiose Ram Mandir in Ayodhya in January were time and again repeated in speeches.

On the other hand, Congress’s campaign was Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot-centric and was carried forward on his welfare schemes alone. Gehlot’s flagship Chiranjeevi Health Insurance Scheme of Rs 25 lakh, which was to be increased to Rs 50 lakh, smartphones and subsidised cylinders for women, and free electricity were publicised widely but probably fell short in implementation.

"Men, message and management won the day for BJP," Dr Sanjay Lodha, Rajasthan coordinator for CSDS-Lokniti told Deccan Herald.

BJP’s top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and Assam Chief Minister Hemant Biswa Sharma all campaigned extensively in the state, casting aspersions on Gehlot’s governance model. They spoke about rampant corruption amongst the MLAs, and ministers and the anger against them. They spoke about women's security with Rajasthan topping the chart in case of rapes. Besides, Modi was projected as a charismatic, world leader, who could take along all castes and communities and can promise credible guarantees, unlike the Congress government. He reached out to over 122 constituencies, campaigning extensively. The hoardings across the state talked about development, jobs, power, drinking water, and a robust law and order in the state. The advertisements picturing the common man echoed Rozgaar panyenge, BJP ko layenge, Goondagardi hatayenge, BJP ko layenge.

Other than the governance, the BJP's message harped on majoritarianism. They were able to effectively polarise the pockets, where the minority communities have a major presence. They also put up saffron seers from those constituencies, who followed the party line of making the divide more blatant.

“Secondly the message was that majoritarianism Hindutva will finally triumph along with Modi’s promised development. That set the agenda for leaders to focus on Kanhaiya Lal murder, cow smuggling in the Meo Muslim belt of Alwar, Bharatpur, them versus us debate, the “Taliban tendencies, and bulldozer politics having double meaning. Besides, the invitation for the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya in January 2024 touched the chord amongst voters, who may not be traditional BJP voters.”

Thirdly BJP’s organisational strength is immense, “The election campaign was micro-managed to the last detail. At least 38000 WhatsApp groups affiliated with RSS constantly fed information and kept in touch with voters. Grassroot workers with RSS cadres leading the way went down to the booth level and connected with the voters, especially in the last 15 days which perhaps worked in BJP’s favour,” says Dr Lodha.

Poll analysts, however, say Congress, by increasing its vote share by 0.19 per cent, has done remarkably well, mainly due to Gehlot’s welfare bandwagon.

“Otherwise Congress may have suffered a more humiliating defeat as in 2013 when it could just win 21 seats as against 163 of BJP. Also, there was no perceptible wave against the Congress this time,” says Narayan Bareth, a senior poll analyst.

Dr Lodha says Gehlot’s popularity and his administrative and political acumen were never in doubt. “He remains the tallest leader of Congress in Rajasthan. But one should always put party before one’s ego. That was not done and factionalism in Congress came to the fore time and again. On the face of it, Gehlot and Pilot posed a united front but they never campaigned together. Pilot was limited to some constituencies. Theirs was not an inclusive campaign.”

Experts say only welfarism does not work. It did not resonate with the voters as they felt governments are bound to ensure these for the citizens- health, employment and education.

Dr Lodha says: “Also the welfare schemes were not implemented properly. You may have a good Chiranjeevi Scheme, but if you don’t have doctors to run the show, then it is useless. Also due to a lack of organisational strength, the schemes failed to reach the remotest corners of the state. Although Gehlot tried his best with Inflation Camps and guarantee cards, the actual delivery was lacking.”

Also, Congress preferred to go it alone, rather than ally with any of the smaller parties from whom they are supposed to have received feelers. “They could have allied with Bharatiya Adivasi Party in southern Rajasthan and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, which could have fetched them at least 20 seats more.”

Overconfidence and complacency perhaps proved nemesis for Congress. But there are some saving graces for Congress as well.

Dr Lodha enumerates them saying, “With this election, Congress seems to have a good bouncing back rate, it has marginally increased its vote share, it has made inroads amongst urban voters, which were earlier the sole domain of BJP and women voters have voted for them.”

The 22 lakh new first-time voters may have gone against the Congress over the paper leaks and the employment scenario in the state.