Assembly election calculations, push for more seats behind AIADMK decision to snap ties with BJP

While snapping ties with the BJP, AIADMK blamed the national party’s Tamil Nadu chief K Annamalai’s outbursts against its leaders and ideology for the decision, but the reasons for the break-up go beyond those stated in public. 

BJP’s insistence on rehabilitating AIADMK rebels T T V Dhinakaran, V K Sasikala, and O Panneerselvam as allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), public proclamation that the party was aiming for the 2026 assembly elections, and the demand for over 10 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are also some of the other reasons that forced the situation. 

It is understood that the BJP was demanding at least 11 seats for the party as against five it was allotted in 2019, which didn’t go well with the AIADMK leadership. The BJP, which increased its vote share to 5 per cent in 2022 urban local body polls from 3 per cent in 2019, believes that it has grown in Tamil Nadu, a contention that the AIADMK continues to reject. 

Severing of ties, according to AIADMK leaders, is more to do with the 2026 assembly elections than the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. 

While the AIADMK readily endorsed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s candidature for a third straight term, the regional party expected the BJP to reciprocate the gesture by acknowledging Palaniswami as the alliance’s Chief Ministerial candidate for the assembly elections due in 2026.

Dravidian parties, be it DMK or AIADMK, have always ensured that the national parties that they ally with support them in assembly elections in return for their help in general elections. However, Annamalai wasn’t willing to accept this unwritten rule by openly proclaiming that he was not appointed as TN BJP chief to accept Palaniswami’s leadership but to bring the party to power.  

“It is very clear from Annamalai’s utterances that the BJP would want to break away from the AIADMK alliance after 2024 polls. When they talk about coming to power in 2026 despite being in an alliance with us, why should we support them in 2024 is one question that has been on our minds for a long time,” a senior AIADMK leader told DH. 

Also, the leader added, the party leadership didn’t enjoy the proposals from the BJP to induct leaders like Dhinakaran, and OPS into the NDA. 

“These were the people who were expelled by us. Why should they be in an alliance that is led by AIADMK in Tamil Nadu? The BJP might think that they hold a sizable chunk of votes, but we believe the AIADMK is in complete control of EPS,” another leader said. 

AIADMK leaders feel that the decision to walk out of the NDA will help them to reach out to many communities, especially minorities, who have been keeping away from the party ever since it aligned with the BJP. A majority of Dalits, who voted for AIADMK under J Jayalalithaa, moved away from the party in the past two elections by transferring their votes to the DMK. 

The first leader quoted above also said 2026 elections are very crucial for the AIADMK as the party has suffered successive electoral defeats. “We need to tell our cadres that we can now take on every criticism by the DMK. If we contest the 2024 elections without the BJP, many parties might join us in 2026 for an alliance and people who left us might also come back to support us,” the leader added.

But one interesting factor in the AIADMK’s resolution against BJP on Monday is it didn’t utter a word against the Central leadership. Every attack was directed only at Annamalai, and the state unit headed by them, giving room to speculation that there is possibility of a patch-up at a later stage.