North Telangana holds key as BJP set to play spoiler

Warangal/Karimnagar/Nizamabad: As Congress and the ruling BRS have been locked in a high pitch electoral battle in India's youngest state, the north Telangana region holds the key as BJP may play a spoiler.

While it is difficult to assess which party's chances BJP may spoil, on the ground assessment shows that the saffron party has emerged as force that can't be ignored in north Telangana region that has around 54 assembly segments spread in the combined old districts of Medak, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Warangal.

Out of 54 seats, in 2018 polls BRS had a near sweep of the region by bagging around 47 seats. It is in this region that BJP had registered a phenomenal strike rate in the 2019 general elections held just months after the assembly polls. BJP had bagged three Lok Sabha segments- Adilabad, Nizamabad and Karimnagar in north Telangana region including Secunderabad in Central region.

In almost all the 21 assembly segments that come in the three Lok Sabha seats BJP bagged, had secured clear majority votes against the nearest rival candidates belonging to BRS establishing its clear dominance in the region.

The back to back wins in two by polls held for Dubbak and Huzurabad by BJP candidates after 2019 general elections are also in north Telangana.

“There has been renewed enthusiasm among the BJP cadres post the 2019 polls in north Telangana region. The candidates selection has also been done with proper exercise. North Telangana and the central region is where BJP's strength lies. A decent strike rate can be expected by BJP in north Telangana,” senior journalist and political analyst Raka Sudhakar told DH.

BJP had also put in special efforts in selecting the candidates and voters also appear to be acknowledging it. For instance in Mulugu, which is a ST reserved segment, BJP had fielded Azmeera Prahlad Naik, son of a veteran leader and former BRS Minister , Azmeera Chandu Lal.

Prahlad Naik, belonging to the Lambada community had served as Mulugu Agricultural market committee chairman in the past. He joined BJP in September after he was ignored by the BRS leadership. His father had died in 2021.

Lambadas has a sizable number of voters in Mulugu from where Prahlad Naik's father Chandulal had won thrice as an MLA and also twice as an MP from Warangal.

“Lambadas are all expected to rally behind Prahalad Naik who is a familiar face in the segment. Due to the popularity of his father and given the community background he may bag some 40,000 votes though he may not win,” K Anand of Kannayagudem of Mulugu told DH.

In a three cornered fight among BRS, Congress and BJP a slight margin of votes may turn the tables in keenly contested seats. It is being estimated that BJP may perform well in 15 to 20 seats in north Telangana.

“BJP may get good seats in north Telangana. And in the majority of the 54 seats, BJP may end up as either a first runner up or strong third splitting votes and playing a spoiler. It would be interesting to see who's vote is BJP going to spoil and split,” another political analyst told DH.

According to a pre pre-poll survey conducted by an independent agency Praja Dvani, that had released its report on Thursday, most undecided voters were within the BC and SC community. These undecided voters have come down from 11.5 per cent to less than 7.5 per cent. Out of them 50 per cent of undecided who have made up their minds in the last week are now trending towards the BJP. And majority of these seats are in north and central Telangana regions.

Traction for BJP has also increased with manifesto commitments like a BC as Chief Minister, removal of religious reservations and SC sub-categorisation.