2024 'almost certain' to be warmest year and first above 1.5 degree Celsius: European climate agency

New Delhi: It is almost certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first with an average temperature at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, following the second-warmest October in history, European climate change agency Copernicus said on Thursday.

The announcement comes ahead of the UN climate conference, which begins on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan. At the summit, countries are expected to agree on new climate finance that developed nations must provide to developing countries, starting in 2025, to help them combat and adapt to climate change.

Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), said: "After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference, COP29." Scientists at C3S said that last month was the second-warmest October globally, following October 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 15.25 degrees Celsius -- 0.80 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 October average.

The average global temperature for the first 10 months of 2024 (January to October) was 0.71 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 average, making it the warmest on record for this period and 0.16 degrees Celsius warmer than the same period in 2023.

Since 2023 was 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, it is also almost certain that 2024’s annual temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and it is likely to be above 1.55 degrees Celsius, they said.

At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, world leaders committed to limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, a permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over a 20 or 30-year period.

Earth's global surface temperature has already increased by around 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to the average in 1850-1900 due to the rapidly increasing concentration of greenhouse gases -- primarily carbon dioxide and methane -- in the atmosphere. This warming is considered the reason behind record droughts, wildfires and floods worldwide.

C3S said temperatures were above average in Europe, northern Canada, and well-above average over the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan and Australia.

India experienced its warmest October since 1901 with mean temperature recording 1.23 degrees Celsius above normal. The India Meteorological Department has predicted a warmer November.