Mumbai: In what comes as an alarm, heat-related deaths could increase by 370 per cent by the 2050s worldwide if global temperatures rise by 2°C, according to a report of The Lancet.
With the world currently on track for 2.7°C of heating by 2100, and energy-related emissions reaching a new record high in 2022, the lives of current and future generations hang in the balance, it said.
For the first time, the 2023 Report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change titled - ‘The imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms’ - provides a disturbing glimpse of what could lie ahead in a heating world.
New projections, developed with the support of the Climate Vulnerability Forum (CVF), outline the rapidly growing risks to population health if the 1.5°C target is missed, with every health hazard monitored by The Lancet Countdown predicted to worsen if temperatures rise to 2°C by the end of the century.
“Under this scenario, yearly heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370 per cent by mid-century, with heat exposure expected to increase the hours of potential labour lost globally by 50 per cent. More frequent heatwaves could lead to around 525 million more people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity by 2041-2060, exacerbating the global risk of malnutrition,” warns the report.
Life-threatening infectious diseases are also projected to spread further by mid-century, with the length of coastline suitable for Vibrio bacteria expanding by 17 per cent–25 per cent and leading to 23–39 per cent more cases, and the transmission potential for dengue increasing by 36 per cent–37 per cent—contributing to its rapid global expansion.
The 8th Lancet Countdown report led by University College London represents the work of 114 leading experts from 52 research institutions and UN agencies around the world including the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), providing the most up-to-date assessment of the links between health and climate change. Published ahead of the 28th UN Conference of the Parties (COP), the report presents 47 indicators that include new and improved metrics that monitor household air pollution, financing of fossil fuels, and engagement from international organisations on the health co-benefits of climate mitigation.
“Our health stocktake reveals that the growing hazards of climate change are costing lives and livelihoods worldwide today. Projections of a 2°C hotter world reveal a dangerous future, and are a grim reminder that the pace and scale of mitigation efforts seen so far have been woefully inadequate to safeguard people’s health and safety”, says Dr Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London.
“In the face of such dire projections, adaptation alone cannot keep up with the impacts of climate change, and the costs are rapidly becoming unsurmountable”, says Professor Stella Hartinger, Director of the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre for Latin America.
The failure to seriously mitigate climate change is self-evident, with health-related losses and damages soaring globally. In 2023, the world experienced the hottest global temperatures in over 100,000 years, and heat records were broken on every continent, exposing people all over the world to deadly harms.
Even at the current 10-year global average 1.14°C of heating, people experienced on average 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures in 2018-2022, over 60 per cent of which were made more than twice as likely to occur because of man-made climate change. Heat-related deaths in people aged over 65 increased by 85 per cent in 2013-2022 compared to 1991-2000, substantially above the 38 per cent increase expected had temperatures not changed.