Tipping points and climate extremes: A race against time

Climate change is no longer a distant threat but a lived reality, with escalating consequences that derail development and threaten the well-being of both natural and human systems. The world is witnessing an alarming increase in the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of extreme weather events—from heatwaves and floods to wildfires and droughts. The looming threat of tipping points—thresholds beyond which changes in the Earth’s climate become irreversible—grows ever larger. As these risks intensify, building resilience and promoting climate adaptation are more urgent than ever.

Global temperatures have risen by approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and extreme events are rising. Extreme heatwave days have surged by 54%, with their length growing by 45%, putting immense strain on everything from human health to infrastructure. In 2024 alone, temperatures exceeded 50 degrees Celsius in more than 10 countries, while other regions faced wetter-than-average conditions, leading to widespread flooding in parts of North America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia. These shifts are compounded by drier-than-normal conditions in parts of North America, Asia, South America, and Europe.

These shifts have led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, devastating forests in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Greece. Prolonged and intense droughts, particularly in regions already prone to water scarcity, are exacerbating the crisis. While these statistics highlight the scale and intensity of climate extremes, they fail to capture the full extent of social and economic devastation. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, extreme weather events in the past 50 years have resulted in over two million deaths and $3.64 trillion in economic losses.

According to a new report by WMO, there is an 80% likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years. As climate extremes escalate, scientists are increasingly concerned about the possibility of crossing critical tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Tipping points refer to thresholds beyond which changes in the climate become self-perpetuating and potentially irreversible. Crossing these points could lead to catastrophic consequences for ecosystems, weather patterns, and human societies.

One of the most concerning tipping points is the potential collapse of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. These ice sheets contain enough water to raise global sea levels by several meters, and there is growing evidence that parts of these ice sheets may already be destabilising. Another potential tipping point is the thawing of permafrost in the Arctic. Permafrost contains vast amounts of carbon in the form of methane and carbon dioxide, and thawing can release these gases into the atmosphere and accelerate global warming. Estimates suggest that the release of carbon from permafrost could add up to 0.3 degrees C to global temperatures by the end of the century. Another tipping point is the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, a vital carbon sink, absorbing millions of tonnes of CO2 each year.

The crossing of these tipping points would lead to more extreme and unpredictable weather patterns, greater sea level rise, and the collapse of ecosystems that billions rely on for food, water, and livelihoods.

Given the escalating climate extremes and the looming threat of tipping points, building resilience and promoting climate adaptation are no longer optional—they are essential. While reducing emissions is crucial to slowing global warming, the reality is that we are already locked into a certain amount of climate change due to past emissions. This means we must prepare for the impacts that are already here and those that are coming.

Building resilience involves strengthening the ability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems to withstand and recover from climate shocks. This includes investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as flood defences, heat-resistant buildings, and drought-resistant water systems. It also entails enhancing early warning systems, improving disaster preparedness, and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to resources and support in the aftermath of disasters.

Climate adaptation, on the other hand, focusses on adjusting systems and behaviours to cope with the changing climate. In agriculture, for example, farmers can adopt climate-smart practices, such as crop diversification, water-efficient irrigation, and soil conservation techniques. In urban areas, cities can implement green infrastructure, such as parks, wetlands, and green roofs, to reduce the heat island effect and improve resilience to floods.

Importantly, climate adaptation and resilience-building efforts must be inclusive and equitable. The people who are most vulnerable to climate change often have the least capacity to adapt. Ensuring that adaptation efforts reach these populations is critical to reducing inequality and preventing further social and economic harm.

The escalating climate extremes and the threat of tipping points are a stark reminder of the urgency of the climate crisis. Building resilience and promoting climate adaptation are essential to safeguarding communities, ecosystems, and economies from the worst impacts of climate change. We must act now, with bold, decisive, and inclusive measures, to build a sustainable and resilient future for all.

(The writer is the Sector Head, Climate, Environment and Sustainability at the Centre for Study of Science, Technology, and Policy, Bengaluru)