Bihar CM Nitish Kumar likely to resign today: Sources

New Delhi: Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is likely to resign on Sunday morning, paving the way for the return to the BJP-led NDA fold even as senior leaders of JD(U), BJP, RJD and Congress were closeted in internal meetings in Patna and Delhi.

While JD(U) sources said Kumar’s resignation is imminent, strong indications about the switch came from remarks by Congress, RJD and JD(U) leaders. Bihar BJP leaders met in Patna while they did not make any formal announcement as their central leadership strictly instructed them  to put on hold “any formal announcement” till Nitish’s resignation.

Without referring to Nitish set to make another political volte face – fourth in past nine years, JD(U) spokesperson Rajiv Ranjan said in a statement that Nitish takes decisions “in the interest” of the state and his dedication towards Bihar shows that the “interest of the state remains paramount in all his decisions”.

While JD(U) political advisor and spokesperson KC Tyagi held the Congress responsible for the decline of I.N.D.I.A bloc, Congress said its president Mallikarjun Kharge tried to reach out to Nitish at least twice but he did not respond. Earlier, Sonia Gandhi too tried reaching out to Nitish in vain.

In a meeting, RJD also authorised its chief Lalu Prasad to take appropriate decisions to protect the alliance, amid attempts to woo JD(U) legislators unhappy with Nitish’s latest move to remain in the Grand Alliance. There are also attempts to bring Jiten Ram Manjhi’s HAM to Lalu’s side.

Congress also stepped up efforts appointing former Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel as a senior observer to Bihar to coordinate Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra and “other party activities”. Party leaders rubbished suggestions that 10 of its 19 MLAs are in touch with the BJP.

While other leaders were busy with meetings, Nitish displayed a sense of routine activity by first flagging off fire brigade engines at a function in Patna followed by laying the foundation stone for the renovation of a renowned temple in the presence of union minister and BJP leader Ashwini Choubey. Incidentally, it is a project of the tourism department held by Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav, who was not present.

In Delhi, LJP (Paswan) chief Chirag Paswan, an NDA supporter, held a meeting with BJP president JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Paswan had been opposed to the JD(U) and his party’s presence in the 2020 Assembly elections was said to have damaged the Nitish-led party.

After the meeting, he said he raised certain concerns and he has received some assurances.

How could Bihar drama unfold

Scenario 1: JD(U) joins hands with the BJP and forms a government at the earliest. Nitish could remain Chief Minister but there could be two Deputy Chief Ministers from BJP. It is to be seen whether the BJP will appoint Sushil Kumar Modi as Deputy Chief Minister. JD(U)-BJP, which can cross the majority mark, could also try to engineer defection in Congress.

Scenario 2: Nitish Kumar resigns to join NDA but RJD and Congress manage to break MLAs from JD(U). RJD combine would need seven more MLAs to cross the majority mark of 122. In such a scenario, Tejashwi Yadav could become Chief Minister. With the Speaker being from the RJD, it will be a tough game for the JD(U)-BJP.

Scenario 3: RJD-Congress is trying to reach out to Jiten Ram Manjhi’s HAM. It is speculated that HAM is offered Deputy Chief Ministership. There were reports that RJD-Congress is also willing to offer Manjhi the post of Chief Minister. With a group of JD(U) MLAs and HAM, Manjhi could return to power after ten years.

Scenario 4: With Nitish not managing to return to power following defections, he could recommend President’s Rule in the state with the Assembly in suspended animation. Government formation could wait for some time in such a scenario. Nitish is said to be favouring simultaneous polls but RJD was not interested.

Scenario 5: Some reports suggest that Nitish will not resign but sack ministers from RJD and Congress. In such a scenario, he can continue with the support of the BJP. However, the legality of this will be a question. Those supporting this theory suggest that the Governor will have to call RJD, the single largest party in Bihar, for government formation first if Nitish resigns and the JD(U) chief wants to avoid it.