Countrywide rainfall among the lowest so far: IMD data

Almost 31% of India's land mass is experiencing varied degrees of arid conditions, ranging from moderate to extreme.

According to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) data from the Met department for the time period of July 27 to August 23, almost 31 per cent of India's land mass is experiencing varied degrees of arid conditions, ranging from moderate to extreme. This will have a significant impact on agriculture, agricultural productivity, and soil moisture.

The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) expert team on climate indicators developed SPI as a way to describe a meteorological drought on different timescales.

The monsoon has been weak for almost a month now, with countrywide rainfall being among the lowest so far. IMD data suggests that 31 per cent of the country’s total area is facing moderate to extreme dryness, of which 9 per cent is severely dry and 4 per cent experiencing extreme aridty. The data also indicates that a substantial 47 per cent of the country is experiencing mildly dry conditions, which will impact crop growth and agricultural productivity, experts said.  

The IMD has replaced the word ‘drought’ with ‘deficient rainfall’ to describe the poor monsoon. 

The SPI data suggests that large parts of the south, some areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat, and some parts of east India have been hit the hardest, with moderate to extremely dry conditions. 

IMD scientist Rajib Chattopadhyay told TOI, "The situation is quite serious, with various sectors likely to witness water stress. The next two weeks are crucial. If the situation continues to remain the same for another two weeks, the water stress could become high. Even in the seasonal SPI from June 1 to August 23, we are seeing many districts in the red. The ongoing monsoon break is somewhat similar to the one seen in 2002, which saw a 26-day-long hiatus in monsoon in July."

He said there could, therefore, be a negative impact over crops in the affected regions due to insufficient water availability, leading to yield reductions and economic losses for the farmers.

"With decreasing precipitation, water sources like lakes, reservoirs and groundwater levels are likely to dwindle, exacerbated by more evaporation due to higher-than-normal temperatures," he said.

Chattopadhyay added that, "It, however, remains to be seen if some of the rain deficit could be covered, at least to some extent, during September. The connection between the Indian monsoon and El Niño is well known. There have been reports that El Niño gained sufficient strength this month, hence its impact on monsoon has also been felt more so in August. Thus, we have to remain prepared to undertake any contingency measures to alleviate the water stress expected."

He said, "There are reports about the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) soon. The potential impact of this development on the monsoon is still uncertain. But it could potentially act as a positive factor."

IOD is a natural phenomenon that occurs in the Indian Ocean where the temperature of water fluctuates like a see-saw. A "positive IOD" occurs when the western Indian Ocean warms up more than the eastern half. In India, this stage is typically seen to be advantageous for the monsoon season.