Driest August for southern peninsula since 1901

The southern peninsula experienced its worst August showers since 1901, with the southwest monsoon rainfall registering a record 60 per cent deficiency, the India Meteorological Department said here on Thursday, noting that the probability of the western coast receiving “below normal” rainfall in September would be high.

It was also the hottest August for the south and the country in the last 122 years due to the large rainfall deficiency and a weak monsoon flow. For the southern peninsula, the highest average maximum (32.65°C) and minimum (25.26°C) temperature since 1901 was recorded in Aug 2023.

The country and central India witnessed their lowest August rainfall since 1901, but the two geographic regions saw such dips a few times in the new millennium. Central India experienced two poor Augusts (2023 & 2021) whereas there were four such instances (2023, 2021, 2009 & 2005) when it comes to the all-India figure.

The southern peninsula, on the other hand, saw its worst monsoon in the last 50 years as 1972 was the last time when it witnessed such a poor monsoon, though the precipitation received in that year was a tad better than 2023.

The August rainfall was 36 per cent deficient for the entire nation after logging a 13 per cent surplus in July and 9 per cent shortfall in June. Overall, the seasonal rainfall is 10 per cent short of the normal, thanks to El Nino and lack of low-pressure systems in the oceans.

“El Nino was the most important factor behind deficient rainfall in August. In addition, there were other unfavourable climatic factors. There were only nine low pressure days in August as against 16 plus days normally,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD.

Though IMD predicts normal monsoon in September, Mohapatra said the overall seasonal rainfall might end on “negative side of normal”.

The weather bureau forecast a normal rainfall for the season predicting that India may receive 96 per cent of its average monsoon rainfall between June and September.

Since the figure comes with an error margin of 4 per cent on either side, IMD officials said seasonal rainfall would end up at anywhere between 92 and 96 per cent. A below 92 per cent figure will mean deficient monsoon.

Mohapatra said September was likely to bring copious precipitation for east and northeast, but probability for below normal rainfall would be high for north-west, west central and west peninsular India.

The shortfall in August in central (47 per cent), southern (60 per cent) and north west (37 per cent) are likely to impact pulses and oilseeds, but the Union Agriculture Ministry was yet to come out with an assessment.

“The monsoon is set to revive on September 2, starting with east and northeast. No withdrawal criteria have been developed so far,” Mahapatra said.