Elephant population dips by 20% in 5 years: Report

The Environment Ministry hasn’t yet released the elephant census report, Status of Elephant in India 2022-23, citing a delay in the census in the Northeast.

The unreleased report’s data shows a 20 percent drop in the elephant population from that of five years ago, Indian Express reported. Moreover, the Central Indian and Eastern Ghats recorded a 41 percent dip in elephant population as compared to the 2017 estimates.

The publication further stated that apart from the dip in the elephant population, the govt’s unreleased report also mentions about the “mushrooming developmental projects” such as “unmitigated mining and linear infrastructure construction” that pose a threat to the species, IE said.

This is an interim report and the final elephant census report, including the estimation of elephants in the northeast, is expected by the end of June 2025, the publication added quoting the ministry sources.

The Wildlife Institute of India (WII), an autonomous body under the ministry, conducts the elephant census every five years.

Central Indian and Eastern Ghats cluster witnessed the biggest slide in elephant population. Southern West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha, a part of the above-mentioned region, saw the maximum loss in elephant numbers which was 84 per cent, 68 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively, the report said.

The number of elephants in these three regions went down by 1,700. Out of this, 400 elephants could have moved to other states in the landscape such as Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

The drop in elephant population in the Western Ghats could be as high as 18 percent. The reason is due to a slide in the elephant numbers of Kerala by nearly 2,900, that is 51 per cent from the revised population estimate of 2017.

The elephant population in the Shivalik hills and Gangetic plains appeared to be stable and witnessed a marginal drop of 2 percent, it said.

The report’s figures for the Northeast are extrapolated from the previous count in 2017, when the region's 10,139 elephants made up a third of the nation's total elephant population of 29,964. This happened due to the "extremely limited" primary data that delayed the modeling of elephant density in the Northeastern states, it said.

A wildlife scientist working with the project told the publication, "Since there was no deadline in sight for the Northeast and because we were already late for the five-year cycle, it was decided to publish the report for the rest of India and later add a volume for the Northeast. But there was a change of plan at the last minute. Formally, we have been told to wait for the Northeast data.”

The publication further stated that it reached out to Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav on delay in the release of the elephant census report, which was printed back in February.

“An interim draft report was prepared by WII. However, it did not have a uniform methodology and results, especially for the Northeastern states (where) the estimation is expected to be completed by next year and a report is expected by the end of June 2025. The process involves new methods including DNA profiling and camera traps which was not done by WII in the Northeast region due to paucity of time and required training and other logistics,” the publication quoting the ministry added.

The ministry, on the significant drop in elephant numbers, said, “This is an ongoing exercise and the progress of the same is being reviewed regularly in the Ministry at various levels. The ongoing exercise uses a framework that is used for the monitoring of tigers, co-predators and prey… (which) is different from the All India Synchronized Elephant Population Estimation 2017.”

The ministry's "reluctance" to accept the elephant numbers for the rest of India, which a senior elephant researcher said should not be compared with the figures thrown up by previous counts, was deemed "illogical". The researcher claimed that even the Northeast population would experience "a rationalization by 20-25%" when properly modelled.

The researcher added, “Until 2017, we relied on either direct (head) count or indirect (dung) count of elephants. This time, we are attempting statistical modelling based on mark-recapture, as we have already done for tigers and leopards, to get reliable baseline data for elephants. So the gap in numbers doesn’t necessarily mean we lost that many elephants in just four to five years. It’s a reality check that elephants have not been doing well for quite some time.”

Threats to the elephant population due to the fragmentation of the east-central landscape by “unmitigated mining, linear infrastructure construction” which “has led long-ranging elephants to venture into historical range, but currently unoccupied areas,” catering to human-elephant conflicts, was also highlighted in the report.

Some other probable threats faced by the elephants are poaching, railway collisions, and electrocution by power lines.

Elephant population in the Western Ghats is “rapidly disconnecting due to changing land use, including expanding commercial plantations (coffee and tea), farmland fencing, human encroachment and mushrooming developmental projects," the publication stated quoting the report.

The report also noted that the relatively stable Shivalik-Terai population in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh are also facing threats from encroachments, forest clearing, monoculture, and invasive species as well as intensified agriculture and linear infrastructure.

The elephant populations in the Northeast, are scattered in a mosaic dominated by human habitations, tea plantations, mines, oil refineries and linear infrastructure, making their movements and lives precarious. Major threat like poaching for ivory in this landscape was also identified in the report, the publication stated.

The report, hinting at the absence of data in the Northeast, called for a “focused estimation exercise… to comprehensively assess occupancy and abundance to devise specific conservation actions.”

An Assam-based wildlife scientist also pointed out that an elephant faces major challenges outside “a few islands” of safety. He said, “Often, these pockets are tiger reserves. Kaziranga and now Manas, for example, in Assam. Nagarhole and Bandipur in Karnataka, or Corbett in Uttarakhand. But such pockets cannot sustain a species that roam long distances," it said.