Assembly Elections 2024 Exit Polls: Haryana may see Congress comeback after decade; no clear winner in J&K

New Delhi: Haryana may witness the return of Congress to power after a decade while Jammu and Kashmir is staring at a hung assembly where the National Conference-Congress combine may have to look at PDP and others to form a government, exit polls predicted on Saturday.

The predictions showed a poor show by AAP, INLD-BSP and JJP-ASP (Kanshiram) in Haryana while BJP managed an impressive show in Jammu region in the first polls in Jammu and Kashmir in a decade and one after the abrogation of special status and its bifurcation into two union territories.

If the exit polls turn true, it would be a boost for the Opposition I.N.D.I.A. bloc as they would manage to once again corner the BJP-led NDA, which had its numbers reduced in Parliament. It could also give confidence to the Congress in the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

The polls indicated Congress-CPI(M) combine getting seats close to two-third majority in Haryana while NC-Congress-CPI(M) having the edge in Jammu and Kashmir.

To be sure, exit polls had got its predictions wrong, the most recent being during the Lok Sabha elections when a majority of the pollsters projected the BJP-led NDA to win around 350 seats.

Six exit polls analysed by DH showed a decisive win for the Congress-CPI(M) combine in Haryana winning a minimum of 44 seats and a maximum of 65 in an Assembly of 90. Congress fought in 89 seats while leaving one for CPI(M). In 2019, Congress won 31 seats behind BJP’s 40.

The BJP, which formed a government with the help of 10-member JJP, is predicted to win 15 to 32 seats in these polls while others like INLD-BSP, JJP-ASP(K) and AAP are likely to win 1-3 seats each. Some polls predicted no seats for AAP and others.

Dhruv Research gave the Congress 50-64 seats while Republic Bharat-Matrize gave 55-62, People’s Pulse 49-61, Dainik Bhaskar 44-54, India Today-CVoter 50-58 and Axis-My India 53-65.

For the BJP, Dhruv Research gave 22-32 seats while Republic Bharat-Matrize gave 18-24, People’s Pulse 20-32, Dainik Bhaskar 15-29, India Today-CVoter 20-28 and Axis-My India 18-28.

Congress is learnt to have benefitted from anti-incumbency against the BJP in Haryana and its campaign around unemployment, price rise, farmers, wrestlers and Agnipath military recruitment scheme hit a chord with people. It also indicates BJP’s gamble on consolidating non-Jats did not work.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the exit polls indicate an unimpressive run by the Congress in Jammu region that has impacted the NC-Congress-CPI(M) combine’s overall numbers though they managed to hold on to their strongholds in the Kashmir valley.

PDP, which did not find a place in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, also could not come up with an impressive show with predictions showing that they could get 4-12 seats. Others including Apni Party, Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party and independents could win 6-23 seats.

Five exit polls showed NC-Congress-CPI(M) getting 31 to 50 seats – Gulistan News giving it 31-36, People’s Pulse 46-50, Dainik Bhaskar 35-40, India Today-CVoter 40-48 and Axis My India 35-40.

For the BJP, Gulistan News gave 28-30, People’s Pulse 23-27, Dainik Bhaskar 20-25, India Today-CVoter 27-32 and Axis My India 24-34.

The predictions showed the alliance led by the National Conference is in a better position to form a government. Congress has already invited like-minded parties, including PDP, for cooperation.

Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.