Himalayan nations are braced with difficult monsoon, says ICIMOD

Kathmandu: Experts have warned that the countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region are facing a difficult monsoon season ahead, with temperature rising above normal and higher rainfall than normal expected across much of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan.

“Heatwave broke temperature records across the region last month, forcing schools to close, impacting crops, and sparking forest fires,” said ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) in its outlook for June to September.

“While pre-monsoon showers have provided relief to some of South Asia this month, the climate outlook just published suggests any respite may be temporary,” according to a press release issued by ICIMOD on Wednesday.

“The consensus from technical experts at the 28 sessions of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28) held on April 29, 2024, in Pune, India is that the El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region are likely to weaken, giving way to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season.” During the second half of the southwest monsoon season, La Nina conditions are likely to develop: conditions commonly associated with above normal rain,” says the report.

“Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan are all expected to receive higher rainfall. And this rainfall will happen in a context of an overall warming trend: of high-than-normal both minimum and maximum temperatures.” “In spite of the fact that last year was a year of below average rainfall in many parts of the HKH countries, we saw catastrophic floods hit region after region, community after community, in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya,” pointed out Mandira Shrestha, Programme coordinator Climate Services at ICIMOD.

“In that context, this year’s monsoon outlook is worrying. It is also set against an overall warming trend, which we know is linked to greater melting of snow and glaciers and the loss of the permafrost – the hidden glue that stabilizes many mountain slopes, and whose thawing is often a key factor in the sorts of devastating flash floods and landslides we are now seeing across our region.”