Hindu share in India's population fell by 7.8% between 1950 to 2015, report shows; BJP leaders blame Congress rule

The report was released in May 2024 and assesses trends in 167 nations across the world. The authors have said that India's performance is consistent with larger global trends.

New Delhi: A workpaper released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) during election season on decreasing share of Hindu population and rising Muslim share has triggered a controversy with the BJP linking to Congress' appeasement of minorities and the Opposition insisting that the poll be fought on real issues.

The paper, 'Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)', prepared by a team led by EAC-PM member Shamika Ravi said that “the share of  the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent). The share of Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 per cent and increased to 14.09 per cent in 2015 -- a 43.15 per cent increase in their share".

It also said the share of Christian population rose from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent – an increase of 5.38 per cent between 1950 and 2015 – while Sikh population rose from 1.24 per cent to 1.85 per cent – 6.58 per cent rise in their share. The share of Parsi population witnessed a stark 85 per cent decline, reducing from 0.03 per cent in 1950 to 0.004 per cent.

The Census reports showed that Hindu population rose from 30.5 crore in 1951 to 96.63 crore in 2011 – an increase of 66.13 crore – while those of Muslims rose from 3.54 crore to 17.22 crore, an increase of 13.68 crore.

The ruling BJP grabbed on to the report alleging that the main Opposition party, Congress, is “hell-bent” on providing quota to the minority community if voted to power and it will alter it whenever their population rises.

The BJP's fresh allegations, which echoed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's shrill campaign in the past few days, comes even as the Population Foundation of India, an NGO, emphasised that growth rates are not linked to religion and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among all religious groups is declining in India, with the highest decrease observed among Muslims. The EAC-PM report has not referred to TFR.

Opposition leaders accused the BJP of trying to create communal divide in the midst of election, with Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra telling media that it should talk about issues related to the lives of the public, at least during the elections, and the issues were unemployment, inflation, atrocities on women and why farmers are unable to earn from farming.

Senior BJP MP Sudhanshu Trivedi claimed that if by this pace the population is increasing and Congress is hell-bent on giving reservation to the Muslims on the basis of population, they will cut the share of the SCs, STs and the OBCs. He also alleged that the Congress in power will keep on "changing" the share of reservation in future with increase in the Muslim population, "which is more likely because they (Muslims) are having possibility of multiple marriages".

Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar claimed that one particular community is "increasing its population in a manner where demography of India is being altered, changed" and it "leads to some questions" like "how much of growth in Muslim community is being caused by illegal immigration and conversion?" 

Top RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav said that the BJP is trying to spread hatred and asked why the 2021 Census has not happened yet. CPI General Secretary D Raja asked why has the EAC-PM come out with this report at a time when the country is going for elections.

"The prime minister is already trying to polarise people in the name of Muslims, talking about handing over keys of Ram Mandir to Muslims... he is taking up all such issues. That means there is an attempt to polarise people by bringing out such data. People should be cautious of such reports," Raja said. 

Year Hindus Muslims

1951 30.50 crore 3.54 crore

1961 36.65 crore 4.69 crore

1971 45.32 crore 6.14 crore

1981 54.59 crore 7.55 crore

1991 69.01 crore 10.15 crore

2001 82.75 crore 13.81 crore

2011 96.63 crore 17.22 crore

2021 -- Census not started yet