Monsoon set for a break in August; IMD says warnings have been issued to Kerala

New Delhi: The monsoon is likely to enter into a break phase in another two weeks, but for the next three days the north west India is likely to be drenched while widespread rainfall is likely in the western parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department said here on Thursday.

The monsoon will be active in the first week of August bringing copious rain in the north west India followed by good rains largely in the northern plains, which may make up for the June-July deficiency in the paddy growing areas of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.

Halfway through the monsoon season, the overall rainfall received for the country is 2 per cent above normal because of the heavy downpours in the southern peninsula and central India as there is more than 18% shortage in north west, and east and north east.

The volume of August rainfall will come down by the second week, after which the south west monsoon may enter into a break phase, according to IMD’s week-wise monsoon models that show subdued rainfall in the third week and barely any rain in the last week of August.

“Normally in August, we do see a break by the middle of the month. It can happen anytime after August 10^th,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD.

Announcing the monsoon forecast for August and September, he said the monsoon would be 106% of the average rainfall and “above normal” rains will happen in September. The La Nina condition, a build up of cooler-than-normal waters in the central Pacific Ocean aiding monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, could set in by August end, he said.

Kerala warnings

Asked whether the IMD had issued heavy rainfall warnings to Kerala, Mohapatra said the weather bureau issued the first warning about heavy rainfall in Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Konkon regions on July 23 followed by a yellow warning on July 25^th and an orange warning on July 29 alerting the state to be prepared to take action.

A red warning was issued on the morning of July 30^th and a few hours later, tragedy hit the Wayanad region when multiple landslides swept away a very large area killing over 200 so far with reports of hundreds still missing.

Issuing of the warning has become a bone of contention between Kerala and the central government with Chief Minister Pinarai Vijayan claiming that the IMD warnings were off the mark and came late while Union Home Minister Amit Shah blamed the state for not taking preventive action.