<p>In the last three decades, the interventions by the then Soviet Union and the US have been disastrous for Afghanistan, while also creating heightened sense of insecurity for neighbouring countries like Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In the late 1980s, when the erstwhile Soviet Union ended its over a decade-long military intervention in the country, it had appeared that peace would return to Afghanistan. But the myriad Jihadi forces created in Afghanistan by Washington and its allies like Pakistan to fight the last Cold War battle with Moscow were so committed to rebuild a new Islamist political order that return of peace to Afghanistan would not happen without more bloody wars among Afghans. <br /><br />The foremost among these forces is Taliban, the militant Islamist outfit that emerged from the US-Pakistan sponsored jihad against the Soviet occupation. As the Soviets and Americans abandoned Afghanistan by the beginning of the 1990s, neither the Soviet propped Najibullah dispensation nor its successor and deeply divided Mujahideen government in Kabul lasted long. By early 1996, the Taliban was in the saddle in Kabul, what with Islamabad ditching its once-favourite internecine Mujahideen groups in favour of the Taliban whose cadres were trained and armed by Pakistani intelligence and security agencies. Pakistan was among the only three countries to have recognised the Taliban regime during the latter’s existence up to 2001, the year it was evicted from Kabul by the US through military action following its rejection of Washington’s demand to handover al Qaeda kingpin Osama bin Laden. <br /><br />Under Taliban, Pakistan’s dominance over Afghanistan was so complete that it enjoyed what Islamabad now terms “strategic depth”. This is something that other neighbours, including India and Iran could not accept as they perceived threats to their own national security. <br /><br />Eight years after Taliban’s overthrow, the spectre of Taliban again haunts Afghanistan and its neighours (excluding Pakistan, of course). The reason: the Obama administration has brought smiles back on the faces of the Afghan Talibs and their leaders, most of whom remain underground in areas along both sides of the Pak-Afghan borders. On December 1, President Obama announced that the US troops, though would be reinforced to intensify the offensive against Taliban-al Qaeda combine, would start withdrawing from the country from mid-2011. As such, the Taliban have regrouped </p>.<p>themselves since 2006 and even call the shots in several parts of southern Afghanistan. Moreover, Taliban is aware that the Hamid Karzai government, backed by the US, is yet to assert its authority even in the capital city of Kabul, let alone outside of it. <br /><br />Tired of fighting a battle that it has failed to win, Washington has contemplated dealing with “moderates” among the Taliban and goaded Karzai to send overtures to them. Whether there are moderates within the Taliban and if they would be willing to join hands with Karzai remain moot questions, particularly when the Karzai regime is seen to be weak and vulnerable even with the US presence in the country. Elements within the Pakistani establishment suggest that the moderate face of Taliban could include its supreme leader Mullah Omar as, according to them, he could be willing for compromises - even distancing himself from bin Laden’s al Qaeda. In other words, Islamabad, though might be an ally in the US fight against the Taliban-al Qaeda combine as of now, is actually doing a loud-thinking on Mullah Omar’s return to Kabul post-US withdrawal. This actually would meet Islamabad’s search for regaining the “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. <br /><br />Serious challenge<br /><br />But Washington’s announcement has posed some serious challenges to India. Delhi is clear that the strategic depth that Pakistan seeks in Afghanistan would accentuate the threat of terrorism India has been facing from myriad terrorist groups based in Pakistan and Afghanistan. <br /><br />India has made huge investments in the post-Taliban reconstruction of Afghanistan. Delhi has spent close to Rs. 55,000 crore in development projects. Over 4000 Indians are involved in various India-aided projects – road and dam construction, laying electricity lines, building the country’s new parliament house in Kabul etc., apart from providing humanitarian aid. India maintains consulates in Jalalabad, Heart, Kandahar and Mazar-i-Sharif, besides the Embassy in Kabul. <br /><br /></p>.<p>There is little to doubt that Islamabad opposes this Indian presence. Over the last five years several Indians have been kidnapped and murdered and almost in each such instance the Taliban has claimed responsibility. In one of the first such cases involving the killing of a Border Roads Organisation employee, M R Kutty, the message was clear: all Indians working in Afghanistan should leave the country or face more such attacks. To reinforce the message, murderous terrorist attacks have been carried out on the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the Jalalabad consulate. Islamabad has repeatedly made known to Washington its disapproval of Indian presence in the country. Obviously, threats to Indian nationals and Indian establishments can be expected to mount. Perhaps, there are only two ways Delhi can protect its interests if the US stands firm on its pull-out plan.<br /><br /> First, by taking measures to reinforce its security presence in the country – a high risk course as India could get sucked deeper and deeper into the Afghan mess. The second could be to seek an internationally guaranteed neutral-Afghanistan which would be free from external interventions/ interferences and does not, on its part, pose threats to international and regional peace and stability. This is inconceivable without the participa<br />tion of all countries from the region, besides of course those like the US and Russia. Probably, Delhi may have to take the lead and circulate this idea. <br /></p>
<p>In the last three decades, the interventions by the then Soviet Union and the US have been disastrous for Afghanistan, while also creating heightened sense of insecurity for neighbouring countries like Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In the late 1980s, when the erstwhile Soviet Union ended its over a decade-long military intervention in the country, it had appeared that peace would return to Afghanistan. But the myriad Jihadi forces created in Afghanistan by Washington and its allies like Pakistan to fight the last Cold War battle with Moscow were so committed to rebuild a new Islamist political order that return of peace to Afghanistan would not happen without more bloody wars among Afghans. <br /><br />The foremost among these forces is Taliban, the militant Islamist outfit that emerged from the US-Pakistan sponsored jihad against the Soviet occupation. As the Soviets and Americans abandoned Afghanistan by the beginning of the 1990s, neither the Soviet propped Najibullah dispensation nor its successor and deeply divided Mujahideen government in Kabul lasted long. By early 1996, the Taliban was in the saddle in Kabul, what with Islamabad ditching its once-favourite internecine Mujahideen groups in favour of the Taliban whose cadres were trained and armed by Pakistani intelligence and security agencies. Pakistan was among the only three countries to have recognised the Taliban regime during the latter’s existence up to 2001, the year it was evicted from Kabul by the US through military action following its rejection of Washington’s demand to handover al Qaeda kingpin Osama bin Laden. <br /><br />Under Taliban, Pakistan’s dominance over Afghanistan was so complete that it enjoyed what Islamabad now terms “strategic depth”. This is something that other neighbours, including India and Iran could not accept as they perceived threats to their own national security. <br /><br />Eight years after Taliban’s overthrow, the spectre of Taliban again haunts Afghanistan and its neighours (excluding Pakistan, of course). The reason: the Obama administration has brought smiles back on the faces of the Afghan Talibs and their leaders, most of whom remain underground in areas along both sides of the Pak-Afghan borders. On December 1, President Obama announced that the US troops, though would be reinforced to intensify the offensive against Taliban-al Qaeda combine, would start withdrawing from the country from mid-2011. As such, the Taliban have regrouped </p>.<p>themselves since 2006 and even call the shots in several parts of southern Afghanistan. Moreover, Taliban is aware that the Hamid Karzai government, backed by the US, is yet to assert its authority even in the capital city of Kabul, let alone outside of it. <br /><br />Tired of fighting a battle that it has failed to win, Washington has contemplated dealing with “moderates” among the Taliban and goaded Karzai to send overtures to them. Whether there are moderates within the Taliban and if they would be willing to join hands with Karzai remain moot questions, particularly when the Karzai regime is seen to be weak and vulnerable even with the US presence in the country. Elements within the Pakistani establishment suggest that the moderate face of Taliban could include its supreme leader Mullah Omar as, according to them, he could be willing for compromises - even distancing himself from bin Laden’s al Qaeda. In other words, Islamabad, though might be an ally in the US fight against the Taliban-al Qaeda combine as of now, is actually doing a loud-thinking on Mullah Omar’s return to Kabul post-US withdrawal. This actually would meet Islamabad’s search for regaining the “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. <br /><br />Serious challenge<br /><br />But Washington’s announcement has posed some serious challenges to India. Delhi is clear that the strategic depth that Pakistan seeks in Afghanistan would accentuate the threat of terrorism India has been facing from myriad terrorist groups based in Pakistan and Afghanistan. <br /><br />India has made huge investments in the post-Taliban reconstruction of Afghanistan. Delhi has spent close to Rs. 55,000 crore in development projects. Over 4000 Indians are involved in various India-aided projects – road and dam construction, laying electricity lines, building the country’s new parliament house in Kabul etc., apart from providing humanitarian aid. India maintains consulates in Jalalabad, Heart, Kandahar and Mazar-i-Sharif, besides the Embassy in Kabul. <br /><br /></p>.<p>There is little to doubt that Islamabad opposes this Indian presence. Over the last five years several Indians have been kidnapped and murdered and almost in each such instance the Taliban has claimed responsibility. In one of the first such cases involving the killing of a Border Roads Organisation employee, M R Kutty, the message was clear: all Indians working in Afghanistan should leave the country or face more such attacks. To reinforce the message, murderous terrorist attacks have been carried out on the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the Jalalabad consulate. Islamabad has repeatedly made known to Washington its disapproval of Indian presence in the country. Obviously, threats to Indian nationals and Indian establishments can be expected to mount. Perhaps, there are only two ways Delhi can protect its interests if the US stands firm on its pull-out plan.<br /><br /> First, by taking measures to reinforce its security presence in the country – a high risk course as India could get sucked deeper and deeper into the Afghan mess. The second could be to seek an internationally guaranteed neutral-Afghanistan which would be free from external interventions/ interferences and does not, on its part, pose threats to international and regional peace and stability. This is inconceivable without the participa<br />tion of all countries from the region, besides of course those like the US and Russia. Probably, Delhi may have to take the lead and circulate this idea. <br /></p>
