J&K: The shifting theatre of terror

Tough terrain and decreased military presence favour the surge in terrorist attacks in Jammu

The recent surge in terror attacks in the Jammu region, south of the Pir Panjal range, has sounded an alarm among security agencies. Ground observations suggest a strategic shift by Pakistan's intelligence agency, ISI, shifting its focus from Kashmir to Jammu.

After the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, increased military presence and enhanced security measures in Kashmir have made it challenging for Pakistan-backed militant groups to operate in this region.

Meanwhile, Jammu, with its diverse population and strategic significance, has become a new ‘terror capital’, where these militant groups aim to exploit communal tensions and create discord. Reports indicate that at least 50 foreign terrorists have infiltrated into the Jammu region.

Credit: DH Graphic

The terror attacks in Jammu have been of high impact. In the past 32 months, 70 people, including 52 security personnel and 18 civilians have been killed in terror incidents in Jammu region. One reason for this shift could be the changing geopolitical landscape.

These terrorists have established a network across the region, with 25 reportedly active in the Dudu-Basantgarh belt of Udhampur, Doda, and Kishtwar districts, and another 25 in the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch.

This shift has been gradual. Analysts observe that the increasing terror activities in Jammu, a region historically more peaceful than the Kashmir Valley, seem to be part of a broader Pakistani strategy to create unrest in new areas. This approach could potentially stretch Indian security forces thin and attract international attention.

Lieutenant General BS Jaswal (retd), a former Northern Army commander, points out that troop density south of the Pir Panjal range has decreased due to redeployment of forces to Ladakh amid the ongoing standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control.

“The terrorists want to exploit the void created by the redeployment of forces. Additionally, the Jammu region is seeing more terror incidents as infiltrators are using these routes to penetrate into Kashmir,” he said.

Security analyst Sushant Sareen echoes these views. “Terrorism's centre of gravity has shifted towards Jammu in the last three years as the space to operate in the Kashmir valley has been reduced by the Army's increased operations,” he said.

The tough terrain of the Jammu region also provides a favorable environment for terrorists. Infiltration routes across the International Border and the Line of Control have been exploited. There are instances of using tunnels and drones to evade security measures.

A senior police officer stated that the attacks in Jammu aim to disrupt communal harmony and influence political scenarios, particularly ahead of the potential assembly elections. He added that troop deployments in Jammu have been increased, surveillance systems upgraded, and intelligence operations intensified to counter the threat.

Foreign terrorists operating in forest and hilly areas of Jammu are believed to be highly trained and armed with advanced weapons, including M4 rifles left behind by US troops in Afghanistan in 2021. Security agencies suspect some of these terrorists are retired Pakistani soldiers.

“These terrorists, trained in the mountains of Pakistan and Afghanistan, carry out sudden attacks on security forces and then disappear into rugged and hilly terrains,” sources said.

J&K police chief R R Swain recently confirmed the presence of foreign terrorists in the Jammu region but did not specify numbers. “There will be a decisive battle against foreign terrorists in Jammu in the next two to three months. We are hopeful of wiping them out from the region," he asserted.

However, the challenge remains complex. Unlike Kashmir, where the insurgency has a long and well-understood history, Jammu's relative calm in the past makes it difficult to predict the dynamics of this new wave of terror.