The rash of terrorist incidents in the Jammu division has provoked a flood of ignorant commentary about the ‘unprecedented surge’ in terrorism in this region. One anchor of a prominent TV Channel, interviewing a former Chief of Army Staff, authoritatively informed viewers that “such levels of violence have never been seen in Jammu.” A little background is, consequently, necessary. Since 2000 (disaggregated data is available on the South Asia Terrorism Portal from this year), at least 8,567 persons have been killed in terrorist violence in the Jammu Division, as against 12,821 in Kashmir (location was not established in another 931 killings). At its peak in 2001, 1,831 persons lost their lives to terrorism in the Jammu Division. In 2002, 1,532 people were killed in the Jammu region, more than the 1,418 killed in Kashmir.
Major operations in the region established near-complete security force (SF) dominance in Jammu, bringing fatalities in recent years into fluctuating double digits. The region began to look very peaceful compared to the more volatile valley. As for the current ‘surge’ and ‘shift of terrorism’ from the valley to Jammu, in 2024, till July 16, 26 persons have lost their lives in Jammu, as against 34 in Kashmir; there were 59 fatalities in Jammu and 75 in Kashmir, in 2023. There is neither surge nor shift. It is useful to recall that, through 2023, the Centre was pushing proposals for the withdrawal of the Army from Jammu, despite evidence of continuing terrorism and infiltration.
It is a measure of security force dominance that, despite enormously unpopular policies adopted by New Delhi – including the decision on Article 370, the indiscriminate clamp-down after this, disruption of political processes, efforts to create proxy political parties that could allow the BJP to run the show by remote control, gerrymandering in the delimitation process, increasingly repressive measures to control the population and discourse, the imposition of arbitrary central rule and enormous augmentation of the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, and a crude politics of polarization and communal abuse – terrorist violence has been progressively contained in J&K, essentially as a result of the relentless efforts and sacrifices of the security forces. At 134 in 2023, fatalities in the state/UT are once again approaching the level achieved 12 years ago, in 2012, at 121.
There is cause for concern, however, in the significant losses the SFs have suffered in Jammu this year. Of the 26 killed in the division, 11 have been SF personnel, while just two of the 34 killed in Kashmir were from the SFs. The initiative has shifted into terrorist hands in Jammu because of a drastic dilution of Force in the region over the years, particularly after the 2020-21 crises with China along the Line of Actual Control. The strength and integrity of the security grid will have to be restored in Jammu.
It is folly to project ‘zero terrorism’ as an objective of the state policy and an inevitable consequence of the hollowing out of Article 370. The levels of terrorist violence currently recorded in J&K reflect a sustainable minimum that will persist – with transient fluctuations and locational shifts – as long as Pakistan continues to support and facilitate Islamist terrorist activity in the Union Territory.
(The writer is the Executive Director of the Institute of Conflict Management.)