Joe Biden unlikely to visit India for Republic Day celebrations, no Quad summit soon

New Delhi: US President Joe Biden is unlikely to attend the next Republic Day ceremony of India amid strains in bilateral relations in the wake of the allegation by Washington DC about the involvement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government in a plot to kill a Khalistani Sikh extremist in the United States.

With Biden turning down his invitation to attend the Republic Day ceremony as the chief guest on January 26, Modi has also dropped the plan to host him as well as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan for a summit of the Quad the next day.

The summit of the four-nation bloc is now likely to be held later next year.

A source in New Delhi said on Tuesday that India would look for new dates for the summit of the Quad as the dates, which had so far been under consideration, had not worked with all four nations.

That Modi invited Biden to be the chief guest at the Republic Day ceremony at the Kartavya Path in New Delhi on January 26 was first revealed by Eric Garcetti, the envoy of Washington DC to New Delhi, on September 20, just about 10 days after the US president had attended the G20 summit hosted by the prime minister of India. Garcetti’s comment fueled speculation about a second visit by Biden to New Delhi.

But, with the Biden Administration not confirming acceptance of the invitation, New Delhi too remained tightlipped about the second visit of the US president to India. During the India-US 2+2 dialogue in New Delhi last month, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that India would host the next summit of the Quad early next year. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had hosted their US counterparts, Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin, for the 2+2 dialogue.

New Delhi wanted to take advantage of the US president’s visit for the Republic Day ceremony on January 26 to hold the Quad summit on January 27. However, Biden’s administration has been citing his 'State of the Union' address to the US Congress around the same date as the reason for having difficulty in scheduling his visit to New Delhi for both the Republic Day of India and the Quad summit.

Persuaded by New Delhi, Canberra, however, agreed that Albanese could fly to New Delhi on January 26 night after attending the Australia National Day celebrations earlier on the same day and take part in the January 27 summit.

Tokyo also agreed that Kishida would have a short visit to New Delhi for the summit on January 27 although he too would be busy those days with the budget session of the Diet – the parliament of Japan.

New Delhi was only waiting for confirmation from Washington DC about the visit of the US president. But, according to sources, the White House recently conveyed to New Delhi that it would be very difficult for Biden to schedule a visit to the national capital of India on January 26 or 27.

A source said that New Delhi would now send an invitation to another foreign leader to attend the Republic Day ceremony as the chief guest.

Biden turned down the invitation from New Delhi amid speculation over the implication on the bilateral relations of the allegation by the US Department of Justice that an official of the Government of India had been involved in a plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a leader of the secessionist Sikhs for Justice, in New York.

The allegation by Washington DC against New Delhi followed a similar claim by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government in Ottawa about the role of India in the June 18 killing of Khalistani Sikh extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar at the parking lot of a gurdwara at Surrey in the British Columbia province of Canada. Though New Delhi dismissed the allegation, the Biden administration has been nudging the Government of India to cooperate in the probe launched by the agencies of the Government of Canada in connection with the murder. It was also revealed that the US had provided intelligence inputs to help Canada accuse India of the killing of Nijjar.

New Delhi, however, was quick to launch a probe in the wake of the allegation by Washington DC that an official of the Government of India had engaged Nikhil Gupta, an Indian arrested from the Czech Republic by the US authorities, to hire a hitman to kill the secessionist Sikhs for Justice leader in New York. Gupta had been arrested by the US law enforcement agencies from the Czech Republic.

Trudeau’s allegation was outrightly dismissed by New Delhi, but it triggered a diplomatic row, with both sides expelling each other’s diplomats and issuing tit-for-tat travel advisories. India called Canada a haven for terrorists and suspended issuing visas for Canadians. It, however, recently restarted issuing certain categories of visas for the citizens of Canada. New Delhi also made Ottawa downsize its high commission in the national capital of India and its consulates in other cities, leading to the departure of 41 diplomats of Canada.

New Delhi’s refusal to join the US-led West to condemn Russia for its military aggression against Ukraine had been an irritant in its relations with Washington DC since early 2022. But Modi’s landmark state visit to Washington DC and his meetings with Biden in the White House saw the US ending its technology denial regime for India in order to lessen the South Asian nation’s dependence on Russia for civilian and military technologies. A Modi-Biden bilateral meeting on the sideline of the G20 summit and the US help to India to have a consensus on G20 summit declaration despite the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict further fueled speculation about the bilateral relations reaching new heights in 2023. But, contrary to expectation, the year is coming to its end with the US allegation against India over the plot to kill the Khalistani Sikh extremist and Biden turning down Modi’s invitation casting a shadow over ties.

Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, had also cited his preoccupation with the State of the Union address to turn down an invitation from New Delhi to attend the 2019 Republic Day ceremony as the chief guest.

He, however, had visited Ahmedabad and New Delhi a few weeks later.

Barack Obama, the only US president to visit India twice, attended the Republic Day ceremony of India in 2015.