Nobel laureates' think tank may assess Karnataka govt's guarantees

A research centre co-founded by Nobel laureates Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo is being considered by the Siddaramaiah administration as a potential evaluator to study the impact of Congress’ five guarantees being implemented at a huge cost to the exchequer.

The state-run Fiscal Policy Institute (FPI) will commission the evaluation of the five guarantees, Additional Chief Secretary (Finance) L K Atheeq told DH.

The government has already reached out to the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) — started by Banerjee, Duflo and Chicago Booth’s Sendhil Mullainathan — to discuss conducting studies on the five guarantees. J-PAL is learnt to have shown interest.

Banerjee had helped Congress conceptualise the Nyay scheme, the flagship 2019 poll promise of Rs 6,000 monthly assistance to poor families.

While Nyay did not help electorally, the five guarantees in Karnataka — Gruha Jyothi, Gruha Lakshmi, Anna Bhagya, Yuva Nidhi and Shakti — helped the Congress register a massive victory in the Assembly polls.

Estimated to cost Rs 52,000 crore annually, the guarantees have been packaged as welfare economics.

The government has also pitched the guarantees as a pioneering effort on universal basic income: each household will get an average additional financial assistance of Rs 4,000-5,000 a month or Rs 48,000 to Rs 60,000 every year, according to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.

“It was discussed in the FPI governing council meeting that an evaluation must be done on the guarantees,” Atheeq said. “We want to look at how the guarantees are being used, their impact on rural incomes, consumer behaviour, how Shakti is impacting women’s autonomy and so on,” he explained.

The FPI is also talking to think tanks such as the XKDR and the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

The government is planning to use CMIE data as a baseline for comparative studies. For example, border districts such as Bidar and Raichur can be compared with their neighbours in the next state to assess the impact of the guarantees.

Atheeq said the proposed studies are likely to start after a few months so as to give time for the guarantees to trickle down.

Politically, the Congress hopes that the guarantees would bring votes to help the party improve its tally in the Lok Sabha elections next year. The party wants to win 20 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka.