Southwest monsoon to reach Kerala around May 31

Last month, the IMD had forecast above-normal rainfall during the June-September Southwest monsoon season.

New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast on May 31, India Meteorological Department said here on Wednesday.

Since the onset date forecast comes with an error margin of four days on either side, the monsoon arrival can happen anytime between May 27 and June 4.

“It's a near normal date as the normal date for onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1,” said IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

While the weather agency was not on the dot with its forecast of the onset date in the last five years, the arrival dates always fall within the error margin of four days, making the IMD forecast accurate.

The weather bureau claimed operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala in the past 19 years (2005-2023) were correct except in 2015, when the arrival was five days after the predicted onset day.

Among the last five years, 2019 and 2023 were the years when the monsoon reached the Malabar coast on June 8 – the most delayed arrival in recent years.

The announcement came amidst heatwaves and above-normal temperatures in several parts of the country even though the IMD has predicted “above normal” monsoon rainfall between June and September, when the country is expected to receive 106 per cent of its average rainfall of 87 cm.