Maharashtra: A cloak and dagger contest

The undivided Shiv Sena contested the 2019 Maharashtra assembly polls in alliance with the BJP. Five weeks after the counting of votes, Uddhav Thackeray was sworn in as the chief minister with the support of his fierce ideological opponents – Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress party.

Five years later, the state polity is a lot more fragmented. The offshoots of both Sena and NCP are straddling the BJP camp. The upcoming elections are perhaps one of the most cluttered in the history of Maharashtra as candidates from a dozen major and minor parties plus a horde of independents have entered the ring.

On paper (and on billboards), Maha Yuti comprising BJP, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are toiling for a common cause. Maha Vikas Agadhi of Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena stand united, or so they claim.

But if you scratch the veneer, the surface below is replete with scratches and poke marks. A scrutiny of the candidates alludes to many ‘friendly contests’ as pragmatic politicians provision for sufficient headroom for post-poll adjustments.

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Closer to the voting, what does the Maharashtra battlefield look like? A cloak and dagger contest in many a nook, a million mutinies in a muddied polity. In certain constituencies, it is difficult to make out if the allies are helping or hurting one another.

The BJP is contesting the highest number of seats in the state. Unless it registers a 99 percent strike rate, one can safely assume that no single party will get a majority. A coalition government in Maharashtra is a given.

The moot question is who will cobble together a majority and how? Will the pre-poll bonhomie continue after the votes are counted? Or will new arrangements emerge depending on the arithmetic of the next assembly?

In a state where ideological commitment is an anachronism, it is most hazardous to guess the contours of the next government in Mantralaya.

In terms of seats being contested, Congress and BJP are the ostensible leaders in each formation, making them obvious claimants for the chief ministership.

With this reality in mind, the minor players, in MVA and Maha Yuti, would have to work with three objectives (priorities may vary) – a) ensure that their respective alliance wins, b) their party has a fair number on board, and c) the dominant partner in each group is somewhat contained. In other words, the interests of alliance partners are the same and yet divergent.

In the prevailing political milieu, where also-rans can end up on the podium, parties may not prioritize as per the norms and conventions.

In the last five years, NCP, and Congress have had to concede chief ministership to Uddhav Thackeray to keep the BJP out of power. Likewise, after the Sena split, the BJP nominated Eknath Shinde as the CM despite being the larger partner in the alliance.

And, then there is the third Sena, waiting in the wings – Raj Thackeray’s MNS, which did not contest the LS polls.

In Mumbai and adjoining regions, a Thackeray family bastion, three Senas – Shinde, UBT, and MNS – are competing for the same political space. Uddhav Thackeray, at least, is getting compensated by non-NDA votes. In this Mumbai Local running at peak hours, is there space for all three?

In Mahim (earlier Dadar assembly seat), once home to Thackeray’s, Raj Thackeray’s son Amit is taking on the sitting Shinde Sena MLA Sada Sarvankar. The BJP had earlier hinted at supporting the MNS candidate, but now it seems to be backing the Maha Yuti candidate.

Similarly, within the MVA, there is a feeling in the Congress camp that the party has had to concede far too many seats to Sena UBT, especially in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region.

“At least three more than we should have,” says a Congress leader who did not want to be quoted. In seat-sharing talks, UBT Sena bargained hard and wanted its leaders to be named the chief ministerial candidate of the alliance.

In less than a week, the people of Maharashtra will vote. Will the new government in Mantralaya reflect the mandate and people’s will? Or will the post-poll negotiations reduce the government formation to yet another exercise in permutations and combinations?