PM Modi dials Donald Trump; H1B visas, trade under lens

NEW DELHI: As Donald Trump won the mandate to return to the White House, Prime Minister Narendra Modi dialled his ‘friend’ and congratulated him on Wednesday – just less than four years after denouncing the January 6, 2021, attempts by the violent supporters of the 45^th United States president to block the transition of power to his elected successor Joe Biden.

“Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership,” Modi posted on X after Trump’s victory over Biden’s vice president and Democratic Party’s candidate, Kamala Harris, in the race to the Oval Office was clear. The prime minister also posted a few pictures of him and the 47^th president-elect of the US, including the ones from the “Howdy Modi” event held in Texas in September 2019 and its sequel “Namaste Trump” held in Ahmedabad in February 2020. “Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability, and prosperity.”

 Modi later called up Trump to personally congratulate him on his “spectacular victory”. “Looking forward to working closely together once again to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space, and several other sectors,” the prime minister posted on X after his phone call with the US president-elect.

With the US-India ties enjoying strong bipartisan support in Capitol Hill in Washington DC, New Delhi is neither elated nor much worried over Trump’s imminent return to the White House to succeed Biden. Just ahead of the poll day in the US, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had said on Tuesday that New Delhi’s relations with Washington DC would continue to grow, no matter who would take over the Oval Office in January 2025 for the next four years.

New Delhi, however, anticipates that the second Trump Administration, while pursuing its “Make American Great Again” policy, might make it difficult for India’s Information Technology professionals to get non-immigrant work visas to work in the US, just as it had done during his first term from 2017 to 2021 when the H1B visa denial rate had gone up from 6% in 2016 to 24% in 2018 before coming down to 21% in 2019. Biden allowed the restrictions imposed by Trump on the grant of non-immigrant US visas to lapse in March 2021. The US granted 3.86 lakh H1B visas in 2023 and Indians, mostly IT professionals, accounted for 72.3% (2.79 lakh) of the recipients.  

The officials in New Delhi said that India should also brace for some tough trade negotiations with the US. Campaigning in Michigan on September 17, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate called India “a big abuser” in trade relations with the US. He criticised India for imposing high tariffs on imports from the US. He also promised to respond with retaliatory tariffs on exports from India, Brazil, and China to the US. He called Modi “a fantastic man” but put him on the spot by announcing that the prime minister would meet him during his visit to the US. Modi did meet Biden in Delaware on September 21 and also visited New York for the UN Summit of the Future on September 23 but returned to New Delhi without meeting Trump or his rival Harris.

The prime minister and the US president-elect have a chequered history, notwithstanding the bonhomie publicly displayed in Texas and Ahmedabad. Trump had in 2018

Trump had in February 2018 discussed with Modi over the phone the issue of 100% taxes on Harley Davidson motorcycles imported from the US to India, “Now, the prime minister, who I think is a fantastic man, called me the other day and said we are lowering it to 50%. I said okay, but so far we're getting nothing. So, we get nothing. He gets 50%, and they think we're doing -- like they're doing us a favour. That's not a favour,” he had said.

He had again in June 2019 publicly ridiculed Modi, after the latter had called the then US president to inform him about his government’s decision to slash tariff on the import of Harley Davidson motorcycles from the US to India by 50%. “So, when Harley sends over there, they have 100% tax. When they (India) send in they make a tremendous number of motorcycles when they send them in, no tax. I called him. I said it's unacceptable," Trump had said, referring to his phone call with Modi. “He (Modi) reduced it by 50% with one phone call. I said it's still unacceptable because it's 50% versus nothing. It's still unacceptable. And they're working on it," he had told a TV channel.

He had in the same year scrapped the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) privilege for the exporters of India in the US. He had also belittled India’s support to the development projects in Afghanistan. “In April 2020, Trump had warned of “retaliation” if India had not allowed the export of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for COVID-19 patients in the US. He had even alleged that the Modi Government had been underreporting the number of people who had died of COVID-19 in India.

Trump’s Diwali greetings to Hindu Americans on November 1, his vow to protect their “freedom” against the “anti-religion agenda of radical Left”, his condemnation of the atrocities on Hindus and other minority communities in Bangladesh and his promise to strengthen America’s partnership with India and his “good friend” Modi were indeed music to the ears of many leaders of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in New Delhi.

Trump’s first term in the White House saw the US raising with India issues like internet shutdown, detention of political leaders, and crackdown on protesters in J&K in 2019 as well as nudging India to ensure equal protection for all under the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The officials in New Delhi, however, hope that his return to the White House will give the Modi Government a reprieve from the subtle but oft-repeated criticism of the Biden-Harris administration on democratic backsliding in India. They also hope that the Trump Administration could be persuaded to tone down on the allegation about India’s role in the plot to kill Khalistani Sikh extremist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York, although the legal proceedings against Nikhil Gupta, who was arrested in connection with the plot, might continue in the US courts. They also hope that the Trump Administration could be persuaded to tone down on the allegation about India’s role in the plot to kill Khalistani Sikh extremist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York, although the legal proceedings against Nikhil Gupta, who was arrested in connection with the plot, might continue in the US courts. The legal proceedings might lead to Washington DC asking New Delhi for extradition of Vikas Yadav, whom the US identified as an agent of India’s external intelligence agency RAW and indicted for asking Gupta to hire a hitman to kill Pannun. The case, officials in New Delhi believe, will not cease to be an irritant in the India-US ties anytime soon.