Sri Lanka elections: Anura’s win will pose new challenges for India

Anura Kumara Dissanayake heads the Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna that not only espouses Sinhala chauvinism but is known for having fanned anti-Indian sentiments in the tiny Indian Ocean island in the past.

Chennai: Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s resounding victory in the Sri Lankan presidential elections will present a fresh set of challenges for India, its closest neighbour. Already dealing with hostile regimes in Bangladesh and Maldives, India has huge diplomatic and strategic interests in Sri Lanka too.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), who heads the Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna that not only espouses Sinhala chauvinism but is known for having fanned anti-Indian sentiments in the tiny Indian Ocean island in the past, is considered close to China. China too has been looking for a 'trusted ally' ever since the powerful Rajapaksas were booted out in 2022, following a popular uprising.

JVP, which was nowhere close to ruling the country just five years ago (with Anura himself scoring a mere 3 per cent votes in 2019), had led two insurgencies against the Sri Lankan state in 1971 and then again in 1987-1990, against the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) which descended on the island’s soil to disarm the then-feared LTTE.

India, recognising AKD’s popularity and rising stature after the 2022 Araghalya protests, did establish contact with him and JVP by inviting a high-level delegation to the country in early 2024.

AKD too realises the importance of India, the closest geographical neighbour. But more needs to be done by both sides to bridge the “trust deficit.”

New Delhi has humongous strategic interests in Sri Lanka given its geographical proximity to Tamil Nadu – it just takes a couple of hours to reach Rameswaram from the island by a speed boat. Moreover, India has invested heavily in Sri Lanka after the end of the civil war in 2009, more so after the unprecedented economic crisis in 2022.

Though JVP is perceived as “anti-India”, experts say AKD can’t afford to ignore India and will certainly reach out to New Delhi. India should also find ways to court AKD and secure its friendship with Colombo not just to protect its strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region, but also ensure a “just solution” to the Tamil question.

N Sathiya Moorthy, a strategic expert who has rich experience of covering Sri Lanka, told DH that the Indian government will have to take a 'watch and wait' approach as AKD had visited India, even though JVP has an established and long history of being 'anti-India'.

“But being in government calls for a different kind of approach to politics, public administration, bilateral and multilateral relations. AKD will initially be busy with domestic problems, particularly setting right the economy. Unless there is a provocation, they might not be looking at India, for now,” Sathiya Moorthy added.

It is a known fact that AKD is a key ally of China, which is spreading its tentacles in Sri Lanka by bagging the project to develop an airport in capital Colombo. The strategically-vital Hambantota Port located along the world’s busiest shipping lane linking Asia with Europe has already given China a strategic upper hand in the region, since it is in the Communist country’s control.

R Bhagwan Singh, a long-time Sri Lanka watcher, told DH that Anura’s election victory is a huge challenge to India. “AKD’s natural ally will obviously be China and it remains to be seen where his handshake will be firmer and smile warmer – with Narendra Modi or Xi Jinping,” he told DH.

Singh added that AKD’s victory was expected as the Araghalya protests, which led to the fall of the Rajapaksas, have now opened another chapter — bringing the “revolutionary leader” to the President’s seat.

“The next one year is crucial and if Anura consolidates his position in Sri Lanka, it will only be music to China’s ears as he will now lean more and more towards the Communist nation,” Singh said.

India may also have to use its diplomatic skills to ensure that a power project awarded to Adani Energy in northern Sri Lanka is not reviewed as AKD vowed in his election campaign, as any Chinese company or a proxy getting the project would only add to its woes in the neighbourhood, given its location.

Sri Lanka has been gradually moving towards China in the past 15 years with successive governments receiving millions of rupees in aid and loan from New Delhi but ‘gifting’ many lucrative projects to Chinese firms. But, Ranil was overtly pro-India and acknowledged the neighbour’s “timely help” in getting the country back to normalcy after the 2022 crisis.

However, Sathyamoorthy says it will be a relatively long innings for India and AKD and things shouldn’t be decided or dismissed overtime. “The two sides will have to sit together and understand each other. We have to give time to them. People who aren’t aware of JVP’s recent stands will do well to let the two countries handle the bilateral ties,” he added.