Sub-categorisation of central OBC list: A minefield which the boldest fear to tread

The second backward classes commission, popularly known as the Mandal Commission report was submitted in 1980. It was implemented by Prime Minister V P Singh in 1989 through an executive order. The order notified 27 per cent of reservations in government jobs and educational institutions to Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The ensuing turmoil altered the landscape of Indian polity, pushing the Congress party to the margins in the ‘Hindi heartland’ states.

Thirty-four years after Mandal 1.0, the die is cast again for the next big churn in OBC politics. After six years and 14 extensions, the Commission formed by the Modi government to examine the sub-categorisation of OBCs has submitted its report to the President of India.

Credit: DH Graphic

Constituted in 2017 and headed by a former Delhi High Court Judge, Justice G Rohini, the commission was mandated to find mechanisms and criteria to ensure equitable distribution of the 27% reservations in central government jobs and educational institutions.

Electoral implications

The socio-economic objective of the sub-division of the central OBC list, which has more than 2,600 castes, is to devise a mechanism through which the benefits of affirmative action percolate down to the have-nots.

But that is easier said than done considering the electoral implications of sub-division are far and wide.

To understand the complexities and risks involved, one has to trace the trajectory of backward-class politics after 1989. For the first decade or so, the Backward castes by and large remained a monolithic entity, led by dominant and influential caste groups. For instance, in UP and Bihar, the mobilisation was led by the Yadavs who constituted the biggest chunk of the voting bloc.

These communities, which were educationally and economically better off within the backward classes, became the biggest beneficiaries of affirmative action in the initial years.

In 2001, former UP Chief Minister Rajnath Singh formed a committee to assess the distribution of quota benefits. The Hakum Singh panel extrapolated that Yadavs and Kurmis together constitute 26% of the total OBC population in UP. But their share in the jobs was almost 46%.

In consecutive elections, the BJP used this schism in OBC politics to isolate the Samajwadi Party in the state and to successfully mobilise non-Yadav OBCs. The process crystalised with the ascension of Modi as the PM candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Political assertion

In Bihar, the political assertion of the minor OBCs against the Yadavs was later led by Nitish Kumar — who comes from the Kurmi community. In alliance with the BJP, Nitish formed a successful winning caste combination to win three consecutive elections against Lalu Yadav’s RJD.

As such, the BJP has been the biggest beneficiary of the post-Mandal caste realignment in contemporary Indian politics.

Between 1996 and 2017, the percentage of OBCs voting for the party increased by more than 10 percentage points to 44%.

The demand for a caste census by the Opposition is also an attempt to break the BJP’s stranglehold over these populations who, even by conservative estimates, constitute more than 40% of the total electorate in India.

However, taking a call on the implementation of the Rohini Commission Report, the ruling party will have to take a few points into consideration. Sub-categorisation can trigger the counter-mobilisation of dominant or major OBC castes towards I.N.D.I.A parties.

Moreover, in the absence of empirical data (that is enumeration and not extrapolation), the report and its findings may face legal scrutiny. And concomitantly give a fillip to the Opposition’s demand for conducting a nationwide caste census to ascertain the population and socio-economic status of various OBC castes.

It is a minefield which the boldest fear to tread. With the Union Government convening a 5-day special session of parliament from September 18, there have been speculations on whether the ruling party may use this opportunity to introduce legislative measures to introduce sub-quotas in the OBC category.