Can Vijay find his place in Tamil Nadu politics?

DMDK did alter the bipolar politics of the state for a brief period of time, but Vijayakanth couldn't sustain beyond a point as he allied with the AIADMK.

Chennai: At the formal launch of Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) on Sunday, the central theme was to project actor Vijay as the third major Dravidian force to take root in Tamil Nadu after the DMK and AIADMK. That’s the reason TVK termed 2024 as a seminal moment in state politics after 1949 and 1972 when the DMK and AIADMK came into existence respectively.

Vijay has identified DMK, which is celebrating 75 years of its existence this year, as his prime “political opponent”, while maintaining stoic silence on the AIADMK. With the DMK and AIADMK controlling about 70 per cent combined vote share (though it has been declining over the years), the question arises: Does Tamil Nadu politics offer space for Vijay to grow?

The DMDK — led by the late Vijayakanth, Vijay’s senior in the tinsel town and politics — garnered 8.3 per cent and 10.5 per cent in its first two polls, demonstrating that there is indeed space for a third force.

Vijayakanth’s alignment with the AIADMK in 2011, a party he once opposed, marked the decline of his political venture. Political observers say Vijay has “learnt lessons” from Vijayakanth by projecting only one party, the DMK, as his prime enemy, which could help him in the long run.

But Vijay must prepare for a long haul in politics. Tamil Nadu has seen actors withdrawing themselves from politics after having failed in the first few attempts. And 2024 is no 1977 when MGR, an established politician then and a leading light of the DMK, rode to power in just five years of launching AIADMK.

‘Prime challenger to the DMK’

There are two ways to interpret Vijay not bringing the AIADMK in the line of fire—the first being that the actor is aiming at a chunk of the party's votes to emerge as the prime force against the DMK. The second is keeping his doors open for an alliance.

The possibility of the latter is remote given Vijay’s rant against “corrupt forces” in Tamil Nadu, which reading between the lines, is a frontal attack on the AIADMK too. An alliance with AIADMK, whose senior leaders face a barrage of graft charges like their peers from the DMK, will certainly “water down” Vijay’s “anti-corruption” plank.

The actor’s “power share” offer could also put the DMK and AIADMK under pressure from their allies to change their stance of not including alliance partners in their governments at the state, while they join dispensations at the Centre. He will also try to take away the chunk of the anti-BJP votes and minorities, which have been going en masse to the DMK since 2019.

Breaking into the well-entrenched AIADMK vote bank of over 30 per cent isn’t an easy task for any political outfit, more so for Vijay, though the party may have underperformed in the last three elections, losing out to the DMK alliance.

‘Following in the footsteps of MGR’

And Vijay should understand that mere “anti-DMK” stance or “dynastic politics” won’t be enough to challenge the Dravidian majors who boast of well-oiled election machines.

“Vijay played very well to the Dravidian gallery. He is on the right track and is aiming at first-time voters and youngsters. I see the possibility of migration of young voters who had sided with the DMK or AIADMK moving towards TVK,” senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told DH.

Political analyst Maalan Narayanan said Vijay is following in the footsteps of the legendary M G Ramachandran, who launched the AIADMK by not taking a dig at DMK leaders but singling out M Karunanidhi as an “evil force.”

“That’s what Vijay is attempting now by accepting Periyar and C N Annadurai and raising his voice against the current DMK which he accuses of having become a one-family party. By praising women leaders and calling women his biggest support base, Vijay is again imitating MGR in reaching out to the significant population,” Maalan added.

The analyst said he doesn’t believe that Vijay will forge an alliance with the AIADMK as there will be a senior-junior problem and the big question is—will Edappadi Palaniswami accept Vijay and vice-versa?

The real test for Vijay would be after the 2026 elections, especially if the TVK doesn’t perform according to his expectations as sustenance of new political parties after a defeat isn’t easy.

“AIADMK could sustain as MGR came to power in 1977. Vijay has to find ways to sustain for a long time. While MGR projected himself as a victim at the hands of Karunanidhi, Vijay is also trying to invoke sympathy by saying that he has left the cinema at his prime. This may work for a while, but Vijay has to tone down this rhetoric at some point,” Maalan said.