Will EPS put an end to AIADMK’s losing streak in 2024?

Chennai: 2024 is a crucial year for AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami in more ways than one. In fact, he will face the acid test this Lok Sabha elections with the cadre fervently hoping that he will end the party’s losing streak. The AIADMK has not tasted any electoral success after the death of its charismatic leader J Jayalalithaa in 2016.

Palaniswami, who took the bold decision of snapping ties with the BJP and is standing by it, also faces the task of stitching an alliance under AIADMK’s leadership for the Lok Sabha elections. For now, only one party, Puratchi Bharatham, has owed allegiance to the AIADMK, while other allies like PMK, TMC (M), and Puthiya Tamizhagam, who contested the 2019 and 2021 polls under its leadership, are keeping their cards close to their chest.

It remains to be seen whether these parties and smaller outfits support the AIADMK or go with the BJP, which will now contest the election by leading a combine of its own. Cobbling up a formidable alliance is very crucial for the AIADMK as a split in the anti-DMK votes might strengthen the ruling alliance whose “arithmetic strength” has been proven in multiple elections, political analysts told DH.

With the party now in his “complete control” – the Election Commission of India (ECI) has recognized him as the party general secretary -- and having walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Palaniswami will be under pressure to deliver for the AIADMK. The party can no longer give the ‘BJP pulled the rug’ excuse – the successive electoral defeats were blamed on the saffron party, which lacks popular support in Tamil Nadu.

Political analyst Maalan Narayanan said singular leadership, ECI’s recognition and the magical Two Leaves symbol, which still holds sway among the masses, are major advantages for Palaniswami. “EPS believes he can make a difference this time as the difference of vote share between the ruling DMK and AIADMK in 2021 elections is a mere 4 per cent,” he told DH.

Palaniswami will have to ensure that the party’s core vote bank, it scored an impressive 33.29 per cent in 2021 despite being in power for a decade, hasn’t taken a beating, while convincing at least a section of the minorities, especially Muslims, who voted en masse for the DMK in the last few elections, to support the party. To his credit, Palaniswami led the party to its best performance in a losing election in 2021 with the AIADMK winning 66 seats and alliance partners nine seats, PMK five, and BJP four.

Senior leaders told DH that the party is also trying to capitalize on the DMK government’s “mishandling” of floods in various parts of the state and by projecting the failures of the M K Stalin-led dispensation in fulfilling the poll promises among other things, but political analysts believe the AIADMK isn’t doing enough on this count.

Prof Ramu Manivannan, Visiting Professor, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, US, told DH that Palaniswami has not “properly used” the leverage he had after quitting the BJP alliance.

“I believe he has not demonstrated his authority adequately. Palaniswami has neither been active nor projecting himself as the lone alternative for the DMK. And his challenges are multi-fold within and outside the party,” Manivannan added.

R Kannan, biographer of Dravidian stalwarts C N Annadurai and M G Ramachandran, said Palaniswami, as Leader of Opposition, has little to show “till now, forfeiting the opposition space to the BJP and some social media commentators” though he belied sceptics and completed his term as Chief Minister and consolidating his leadership of the party.

“With just months to the parliamentary elections, EPS has his work cut out. He must be seen and heard daily on issues and should go to the people. He should also rally all the anti-DMK forces. There appears to be a groundswell of dissent against the DMK administration and Palaniswami should prove consummate in tapping it,” Kannan added.

Maalan, while acknowledging that Palaniswami will face several external challenges, said they will be not as difficult as the period when the AIADMK was in an alliance with the BJP.

“But things would change if O Panneerselvam and T T V Dhinakaran join the BJP alliance which could take a significant percentage of Thevar votes away from the AIADMK. The BJP will also pose a challenge in AIADMK’s stronghold of western TN as party’s state chief Annamalai too hails from the same region,” Maalan added.

Thevar is an umbrella term to denote Kallars, Maravars, and Agamudaiyars, who have traditionally voted for the AIADMK, but they now seem to be upset with the party being pruned of its community leaders, V K Sasikala, OPS, and TTV.

Manivannan too agreed that Palaniswami’s problems will be compounded if the trio come together and contest the polls in an alliance with the BJP. “EPS will then face more challenges than anyone. If Thevars vote on caste lines, then the AIADMK’s vote share might take a hit,” he added.

Maalan said while the AIADMK was concentrating on getting a good chunk of the minority votes, it might be ignoring the traditional woman vote bank shifting towards the DMK, which has focussed on wooing them through free bus travel, Rs 1,000 per month to women heads of families, and other schemes.

“Majority of Muslims have traditionally voted for the DMK, and I don’t deny that a section of the community turned towards the AIADMK. But women who are much bigger in number voted for the party when it was helmed by Jayalalithaa. It looks like women are swaying towards the DMK and a major challenge might be on this front,” Maalan added.