Where did BSP votes go in Ghosi bypolls? Is UP at threshold of another churn?

The outcome of the Ghosi bypoll in Uttar Pradesh and the Samajwadi Party’s comprehensive victory over BJP’s turncoat candidate Dara Singh Chauhan has once again stirred UP’s caste cauldron ahead of the next general elections.

Chauhan, who won the last assembly polls on the SP ticket, had returned to the BJP just ahead of the Monsoon session of parliament. So did Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party leader Om Prakash Rajbhar, another backward leader from the opposition front.

The ’ghar-wapasi’ was being billed as part of BJP’s grand strategy to consolidate non-Yadav OBCs in the crucial heartland state, especially eastern UP where the party had faced severe reverses in the 2022 assembly polls.

By retaining the seat, the Samajwadi Party has been able to re-iterate its ability to lead a coalition of Mandal castes- especially the minor and non-dominant OBCs who have of late sought to align with the BJP as a reaction towards Yadav dominance within the OBC bloc.

The victory of SP’s upper caste candidate, Sudhakar Singh, by a margin of more than 40 thousand votes has also come as a shot in the arm for a beleaguered opposition trying to find feet in a state that sends maximum MPs to the Lok Sabha.

It has opened up avenues for the I.N.D.I.A alliance to explore and experiment with new social combinations between backward, most backward, Muslims, and Dalits.

“The results will set the tone for 2024 Lok Sabha polls,” says SP leader Dr. Sudhir Pawar.

While Yadavs and Muslims remain SP’s core support base in UP, the party needs another dominant caste to stitch a winning combination.

That link was provided by backward leaders like Chauhan and Rajbhar in 2022. In the by-polls, however, the deficit may have been filled in by the BSP voters who were asked to press NOTA by Mayawati since the party had not fielded a candidate.

The tally however shows that only 1700 odd NOTA votes were registered, wherein in the last elections BSP candidate came third by polling more than 54 thousand votes. Raising serious questions about BSP’s ability to add value to an alliance, and retain, and transfer votes to its allies. 

It also begs a query on whether the BSP voter is not averse to trying new combinations in order to seek a share in the power structure.   

The other big takeaway from the elections- perhaps the last one before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls- is the near-total and aggressive consolidation of Muslim votes against the BJP. The phenomenon is more pronounced in seats- as in Ghosi where Congress and the Left had extended support to the SP- where the BJP is locked in a direct fight with the opposition. EOM