India projected to surpass China as world’s most populous country in 2023

The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050

India is set to become the world’s most populous country in 2023 overtaking China, the UN said in a new report that also noted that the global population is projected to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022.

India, along with Pakistan and the Philippines would also be one of the eight countries that will witness more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050.

While China is not on this list, five African countries – Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Tanzania – are. Several other African nations too will see a rise in their population.

Read | World population to hit 8 billion this year: UN

“These numbers are not wildly different from the UN's earlier projections. We knew India was going to overtake China in a few years’ time. We need to think beyond the numbers now,” Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India told DH.

“We should focus on ensuring reproductive autonomy of women, which means that they have the freedom to decide if they want to have children, how many and at what intervals,” she said.

Nearly 22 million Indian women have an unmet need for contraception. They want to stop or delay childbearing but do not have access to contraception.

“Our focus should be on providing these women access to family planning services,” Muttreja said.

Read | In a first, China’s population to shrink in 60 years, here’s what it means for the world

The report comes at a time when the NFHS-5 shows India’s total fertility rate has dropped for most of the states barring five including Bihar, UP and Jharkhand, which is yet to achieve replacement level fertility.

As per the report, titled World Population Prospects, 2022, India's population is predicted to grow from its current level of 1.4 billion people to 1.67 billion in 2050 and reach a zenith of just under 1.7 billion in 2064. Then it will drop to 1.53 billion by 2100.

China’s population on the other hand will drop to 1.3 billion by 2050 and touch 1.16 billion by 2064. It will fall below the billion mark by 2079 and settle around 770 million-plus by the turn of the next millennium.

Also Read | India’s urban population to stand at 675 mn in 2035, behind China’s 1 bn: UN

India’s life expectancy would increase from the current level of 67.7 years to 73.7 years by 2030 and further rise to 77.9 years by 2050 and 80.4 years by 2064. By 2100 it would be in the range of 86 years.

The global population, the report says, is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.

The latest projections suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100.

In most countries of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the share of the population at working age (between 25 and 64 years) has been increasing thanks to recent reductions in fertility.

Such a shift in the age distribution provides an opportunity for accelerated economic growth, known as the “demographic dividend”.

"We should also capitalize on our large young population—about 30% are aged between 10 and 24. The government needs to invest in education, health and creating economic opportunities for young people so that we harness the demographic dividend," Muttreja said.