How Pakistan’s catastrophic floods spiraled into a nightmare

Farmers have suffered tough losses

By Ismail Dilawar, Archana Chaudhary and Kai Schultz

As Pakistan’s government struggled to quell political unrest and rescue a floundering economy this summer, a humanitarian disaster took shape with frightening speed far from the power corridors of Islamabad.

Across the rugged plains of southern Pakistan, extreme flooding has killed 1,300 people since June and displaced more than half a million. Large swathes of farmland are inundated, dead animals dot the highways, and fast-moving currents have crumbled bridges. Scores of homes are underwater, with the government estimating damage at more than $10 billion.

Pakistan’s climate minister, Sherry Rehman, called the floods a catastrophe of “very epic proportion.”

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But as rescuers begin to reach previously cut-off villages, and tally up the true toll, many in Pakistan are questioning whether more could have been done to prepare for Asia’s most destructive floods in years. Sitting in the Indus valley, home to the largest irrigation system in the world, Pakistan is ground zero for flooding. Yet compared to countries like China, which spends tens of billions of dollars on flood protection, Pakistan leans heavily on donations to modernize its infrastructure.

Decrepit, colonial-era dams and canals — including the Sukkur Barrage, which diverts river water to irrigate farms — are in dire need of investment. Upstream reservoirs are so clogged with silt that they can no longer fully absorb floodwater. And the country’s forecasting radars are too outdated to quickly predict extreme weather events.

Though the nation’s disaster management agency posted flood warnings on its website, many survivors say the news didn’t reach them in time. As water engulfed her home in the village of Gozo, Fatima made an impossible choice: to leave behind a paralyzed husband and evacuate their six children to safety, rather than stay back and risk all their lives.

“He wasn’t able to wade through this deep floodwater and I couldn’t lift him on my back,” Fatima, 35, said through tears. “We don’t have food or shelter or any medicines. Nobody came to help us.”

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Rehman said Pakistan should have “learned our lessons” from another devastating flood in 2010, which also caused billions in damage. “We can certainly adapt to the crises better,” she said. “We can plan for our river pathways to flow better and not be clogged.”

Pakistan has weathered a rough year. Inflation reached a 47-year high in August. Street protests threaten a government mired in conflict with Imran Khan, the former prime minister. Though the International Monetary Fund recently green-lit a $1.2 billion bailout package, many Pakistanis are despondent about the future and blame a corruptible state for failing to serve them.

As glacier melt accelerates and the monsoon season becomes more erratic, Pakistan’s woes are particularly severe on the climate front. This year’s rainfall was the highest in three or so decades. In Sindh province, one of the hardest hit regions, rainfall quintupled the average. With so many farms destroyed, Pakistan now has to spend $3 billion to import cash crops like cotton.

Manoj Joshi, an international politics analyst at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, said the magnitude of the flooding, coupled with broader governance issues, “did likely stun the system.”

Mobilizing resources is difficult in Pakistan, the world’s fifth-most populous nation. Funds earmarked for public services are often wasted by bureaucrats, which deters wealthier economies from providing support. The country’s challenging topography — with villages carved into craggy mountain passes — has also complicated relief efforts.

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“Even if the people’s anger is justified, there needs to be this question: Did Pakistan have the capacity to deal with this unusual tragedy?” Joshi said. “If where you need 100 administrators you have only 24, to what extent can they respond? Do they have boats? Can the army or air force pitch in on short notice?”

These are touchy questions. Pakistan is classified as the world’s eighth-most vulnerable country to climate change but contributes just 1% to global emissions of planet-warming gases. Though the US provided over $1 billion in emergency assistance for the floods, Pakistan has pushed wealthier economies for more regular support.

Ahsan Iqbal, the minister leading flood relief efforts, said in a phone interview that the country shouldn’t have to pay for the destruction. “All those countries that contributed to global warming have a responsibility to help us now,” he said. “This tragedy is not of our own making.”

It’s a perennial source of tension at climate finance summits: Donors often prefer mitigation projects like boosting solar capacity, which have a higher return on investment, rather than building canals, even if that infrastructure could save lives.

“Extreme events turn into disasters when vulnerability and exposure of the population is high,” said Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment in London. “That is why reducing vulnerability needs to be very high on the international agenda.”

Officials said casualty figures could rise sharply in the coming weeks. The Indus River remains flooded and rescue workers are still struggling to reach many towns. Even as the monsoon season comes to an end, the damage will sting for months. This week, Pakistan’s government slashed its economic growth projections by more than half.

Farmers have suffered especially tough losses. The agriculture sector employs almost 40% of Pakistanis and represents about a fifth of the economy. Since June, around 800,000 farm animals have perished and Pakistan’s food ministry has estimated crop losses at more than $1.5 billion. Cotton, rice and onion fields are now massive lakes.

With refugee camps overflowing, some survivors have set up tents along the highway, where they beg for food and supplies from passing cars. In the village of Shah Moreo, Ghulam Farid, 80, a cotton farmer whose crops were destroyed, said he’s selling petrol on the road to feed his family of 20. He makes a profit of just 15 rupees (less than $0.1) per liter.

“We are poor people and don’t have any other source of income,” he said.

For Pakistanis in still-flooded areas, the nightmare doesn’t seem to end. On a recent trip to Sindh province, evacuation boats motored to villages where panicked people shouted from their rooftops. In some pockets, the water was 16 feet deep, according to officials.

Many said government assistance was still piecemeal. A cluster of protesters blocked vehicles from crossing a crucial bridge. They screamed that their children were dying of hunger.

Ali Raza, 32, who evacuated from his home, said a desperate situation had turned predatory. He said private boat operators were now charging people exorbitant prices to fetch belongings from their villages or rescue trapped family members. Some couldn’t afford to pay.

On a recent afternoon, three people braved the currents to swim to higher ground. Within seconds, one man slipped into a deeper pool and disappeared.

The next day rescue workers retrieved the body of Ghulam Qadir.