Sunak’s uneasy truce with UK Tory right already exposes risks

Rishi Sunak walked into Boris Johnson’s makeshift campaign headquarters last weekend to see if the two colleagues-turned-adversaries could pull off what would have been the UK political deal of the century.

Those present described it like a scene from a gangster movie, filmed halfway up a skyscraper in Westminster. Two bosses with years of explosive history between them entered under the cover of darkness, leaving their chief lieutenants in a hallway to try to thrash out a peace in a spartan room.

Their failure left Sunak to become Conservative Party leader -- and Britain’s youngest prime minister in more than 200 years -- uncontested. But the talks and their aftermath laid bare Tory divisions that he will struggle to overcome.

Also Read: Indians have good reason to celebrate Rishi Sunak

Just days earlier, their encounter would have been unthinkable. Johnson blames Sunak for his downfall as prime minister in July, while Sunak wears his resignation as Chancellor of the Exchequer then as a badge of honor in the face of scandal after scandal presided over by Johnson as his premiership imploded.

But a sniff of power changes political calculations. And after Johnson’s successor in 10 Downing Street, Liz Truss, torpedoed her own premiership in record time, the warring Conservative Party was desperate for a show of unity.

Those familiar with the Johnson-Sunak meeting say it was a genuine attempt to do so. Over nearly two hours, their talks centered on whether a triumvirate could be formed with Sunak, Johnson and Penny Mordaunt, the other leadership contender, taking senior positions to satisfy the various factions.

Broken party

Johnson’s camp thought it could, as one MP said, put Humpty Dumpty together again by satisfying Conservative voters from 2019, as well as his allies in Parliament and grassroots Tories calling for his comeback. Sunak’s team privately believed Johnson would command the support of as many as 140 Tory MPs, especially from the right of the party, so a detente with Sunak’s more moderate followers would solve the question of parliamentary party unity.

Yet both insisted they had to be prime minister, and negotiations collapsed. Johnson later pulled out of the race, leaving allies to say he will support Sunak’s government while pushing it to meet manifesto commitments made by the former premier in the 2019 general election.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman arrives for a Cabinet meeting in Downing Street. Credit: Bloomberg

Without Johnson on board, Sunak’s premiership is built on an uneasy truce with the pro-Brexit, ideological right wing of the party -- which MPs privately fear will end in yet more infighting. Within hours of his meeting with Johnson, Sunak won the endorsement of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, the self-appointed “Queen of the Brexiteers.”

That virtually guaranteed a Sunak victory but has caused him trouble ever since. On his first day in office, the cost of Braverman’s backing was made clear when the new premier controversially reappointed her as home secretary, less than a week after she was fired by Truss over a security breach.

Also Read: UK's Sunak criticised over plan to skip attending COP27

Braverman fallout

Allies praised Sunak’s decision as proof the clean-cut new premier can do cut-throat politics. Critics - including some Tory MPs - criticized what they called a lack of judgment and said Sunak had destroyed any claim to run a government of “integrity” within hours of taking power.

One Cabinet minister said it is inevitable Braverman would be the first to leave Sunak’s government. Some of the prime minister’s supporters are sanguine about that, suggesting he would be relaxed about replacing her with a more natural ally such as Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick.

Others in government say the issue highlights the precarious balance Sunak struck with the Tory right that would not last if she is forced out.

Braverman fell out with Truss due to the home secretary’s hardline approach on immigration, which contrasted with the former premier’s obsession with growth. Her posturing also jeopardized a trade deal with India that would likely mean the UK granting more business and student visas.

Looming battles

One official predicted these policy disagreements would continue. David Frost, another key figure on the Tory right who now makes most of his interventions in the Telegraph newspaper, has suggested his support for the Sunak administration is conditional on the premier taking a tough line on immigration.

Also Read: UK PM Rishi Sunak says he's a 'visual representation' of links with India

It’s not the only area of conflict. Sunak’s decision to reintroduce a fracking ban caused private fury among Tory MPs who support it as a way to boost energy security without backing a green agenda. Brexiteers accused Sunak of betraying a campaign pledge following the revelation that the government is dropping a commitment to swiftly get all retained EU law off the statute book.

The European Research Group, effectively the party’s Brexiteer caucus, gave Sunak four conditions for their support, including appointing former Johnson and Truss aide David Canzini as his chief of staff. But he did not agree, and they ended up not backing any candidate.

Instead, Sunak has given key positions to experienced politicians from the David Cameron and George Osborne austerity era, including many of its plotters and trouble-makers. Gavin Williamson -- who will attend Cabinet as a minister without portfolio -- is described by Tory MPs as Sunak’s de facto chief whip, or parliamentary enforcer.

Sunak also appointed close friends to key departments. Steve Barclay is in charge of health, Mark Harper is at transport, Grant Shapps runs the business department and Gillian Keegan is at education. The idea is to help the government manage spending cuts without Cabinet splits, an ally said.

But one Tory MP, who was overlooked for promotion, said the new lineup -- coupled with looming tax rises and spending cuts -- would mean the Tories again being seen as the nasty party. With the Conservatives trailing Labour by a record deficit in many opinion polls, the fear is a fresh round of austerity will lead to an election wipeout.

On Friday, Sunak got an early glimpse of the risks. During a hospital visit in south London, the prime minister asked one patient if nurses are looking after her. “They always do, it’s a pity you don’t pay them more,” she replied.